WTPA41 PHFO 242034
TCDCP1

HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP052006
1100 AM HST MON JUL 24 2006
 
THE 1603 UTC QUIKSCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AND 1719 UTC SSMIS DATA 
GIVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN INITIAL POSITION IN SPITE OF CDO SITUATION. 
DANIEL INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS IS BASED ON WIDE CONSENSUS OF 
CI NUMBERS OF 4.5...77 KNOTS...FROM CPHC...AFWA...CIMMS ADT AND 
AODT. TAU THREE 12-FEET SEAS RADIUS WAS CONSTRAINED TO 120 NM WITHIN 
NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST QUADRANTS BASED ON QUIKSCAT SCATTEROMETER 
PASS DISTANCE MEASUREMENTS. 

DANIEL/S INITIAL MOTION IS 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT. THE FORECAST TRACK 
IS SLIGHTLY LEFT OF THE 1500 UTC TRACK...FAVORING CONSENSUS GUIDANCE 
SLIGHTLY MORE THAN LAST TIME. THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS CLOSE TO 
UKMET THROUGH 72 HOURS BASED ON THAT MODEL/S RELATIVELY HIGH SKILL 
WITH THIS SYSTEM. TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAIN NICELY 
PACKED...WITH GFS AND BAMS REPRESENTING THE LEFT AND RIGHT 
OUTLIERS...RESPECTIVELY. 

WHILE THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES DANIEL OVER 25 DEGREES C WATER 
THROUGH 72 HOURS...THIS SYSTEM WILL SEE WARMER WATER AS IT 
ENCOUNTERS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. PASSING LEE OF THE ISLANDS...DANIEL 
MAY PASS OVER WATER AS WARM AS 27 OR 28 DEGREES C AT 120 HOURS AND 
BEYOND. THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER 
DEVELOPMENT...BASED ON UW-CIMMS GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...ECMWF AND WRF 
SHOWS SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE BEYOND 72 HOURS. GFS WANTS TO 
RE-INTENSIFY THIS SYSTEM BETWEEN 96 AND 120 HOURS...WHILE ALL OTHER 
MODELS SHOW A GRADUAL WEAKENING. WE WILL FOLLOW THIS MAJORITY OF 
GUIDANCE FOR INTENSITY TREND...KEEPING DANIEL AT 50 KT AT 120 HOURS.

THIS FORECAST WILL BRING DANIEL ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AS A 
RELATIVELY STRONG TROPICAL STORM LATER THIS WEEK.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/2100Z 16.3N 141.8W    80 KT
 12HR VT     25/0600Z 16.5N 143.2W    75 KT
 24HR VT     25/1800Z 17.0N 144.9W    65 KT
 36HR VT     26/0600Z 17.3N 146.6W    60 KT
 48HR VT     26/1800Z 17.8N 148.5W    55 KT
 72HR VT     27/1800Z 18.5N 152.3W    50 KT
 96HR VT     28/1800Z 19.9N 156.6W    50 KT
120HR VT     29/1800Z 21.5N 161.3W    50 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER POWELL