WTPA41 PHFO 241510 TCDCP1 HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052006 500 AM HST MON JUL 24 2006 BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 0901 UTC TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGERY PASS RECEIVED FROM THE NRL AND FNMOC WEB SITES...AND IMAGERY FROM THE GOES-WEST SATELLITE...ALL AGENCIES HAVE AGREED THAT DANIEL CROSSED 140W LONGITUDE INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC PRIOR TO 1200 UTC. UNFORTUNATELY...WITH THE LOSS OF THE HURRICANE EYE SEVERAL HOURS AGO...THE EXACT POSITION OF THE HURRICANE IS VERY DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AT THIS TIME. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285 DEG AT 12 KT. THE FORECAST TRACK FOR DANIEL IS AN UPDATE OF THE ORIGINAL 0600 UTC NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...NHC...PROJECTION. SLIGHT MODIFICATION OF THE TRACK WAS MADE NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ON DAYS 4 AND 5. THIS TRACK CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THE TREND OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS...GUNS...GUNA AND CONU. HOWEVER...THE TRACK IS BEING KEPT SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THESE CONSENSUS MODELS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE UKMET AND NOGAPS TRACK FORECASTS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THE BEST SKILL SO FAR FOR THE TRACK OF DANIEL ACCORDING TO NHC. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS A BLEND OF T-NUMBERS RANGING FROM 3.5 AT JTWC TO 5.0 AT SAB AND AFWA. CPHC INDICATED A T NUMBER OF 4.5. THE PREVIOUS WEAKENING TREND MAY HAVE BEEN SLOWED SLIGHTLY...SINCE THERE WAS A SLIGHT COOLING OF THE CLOUD TOPS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DROPPED SLIGHTLY TO 80 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE CHARTS INDICATE 25 DEGREE C SURFACE WATER ALONG THE PROJECTED PATH OF DANIEL DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...THE WATERS APPEAR TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THE VICINITY OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF DANIEL REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW AT THIS TIME. THIS SHEAR APPEARS TO BE ABOUT 9 KT FROM THE EAST ACCORDING TO THE SHIPS MODEL 0-HOUR COMPUTES. THE UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES SOUTH OF A RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF DANIEL ARE PROJECTED TO SPREAD WESTWARD WITH THE HURRICANE. HOWEVER...THE UW/CIMSS WEB SITE INDICATES THERE IS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS MODEL INDICATES THAT THIS VERTICAL SHEAR WILL DECREASE AS DANIEL APPROACHES THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE PREVIOUS NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS THEREFORE BEING MAINTAINED AT THIS TIME. THIS FORECAST WOULD BRING DANIEL NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AS A RELATIVELY STRONG TROPICAL STORM LATER THIS WEEK. THE RADII OF 12 FOOT SEAS WERE DECREASED SLIGHTLY IN THE PACKAGE DUE TO THE WEAKENING OF DANIEL DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/1500Z 16.3N 140.8W 80 KT 12HR VT 25/0000Z 16.6N 142.2W 75 KT 24HR VT 25/1200Z 17.1N 143.9W 65 KT 36HR VT 26/0000Z 17.5N 145.6W 60 KT 48HR VT 26/1200Z 17.9N 147.4W 55 KT 72HR VT 27/1200Z 18.7N 151.2W 50 KT 96HR VT 28/1200Z 19.6N 154.9W 50 KT 120HR VT 29/1200Z 21.3N 159.7W 50 KT $$ FORECASTER HOUSTON