FOPA15 PHFO 141447 PWSCP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-C WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP042006 1500 UTC SAT OCT 14 2006 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-C WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 165.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 160W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 130N 1655W 34 6 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 12 130N 1655W 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 12 130N 1655W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24 142N 1644W 34 X 5( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 24 142N 1644W 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 24 142N 1644W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 36 148N 1635W 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) 36 148N 1635W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 36 148N 1635W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 48 155N 1625W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) 48 155N 1625W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 48 155N 1625W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 72 165N 1605W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 72 165N 1605W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 72 165N 1605W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 25 20 20 20 20 0 0 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER DONALDSON