FOPA15 PHFO 140853 PWSCP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-C WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP042006 0900 UTC SAT OCT 14 2006 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-C WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 165.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BUOY 51003 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 145N 1653W 34 17 7(24) 1(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) 12 145N 1653W 50 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 12 145N 1653W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 24 151N 1648W 34 7 11(18) 2(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) 24 151N 1648W 50 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 24 151N 1648W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 36 157N 1641W 34 1 8( 9) 5(14) 2(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) 36 157N 1641W 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 36 157N 1641W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 48 164N 1630W 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14) 48 164N 1630W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 48 164N 1630W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 72 175N 1610W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 72 175N 1610W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 72 175N 1610W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 30 30 25 25 25 0 0 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER DONALDSON