WTPA23 PHFO 191430
TCMCP3

HURRICANE JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  31
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP102005
1500Z MON SEP 19 2005
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 142.5W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  970 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 70NE  55SE  45SW  60NW.
34 KT.......180NE 120SE  90SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..250NE 150SE 100SW 225NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 142.5W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 142.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 15.9N 143.3W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  55SE  45SW  60NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE  90SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 16.4N 144.1W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 65NE  50SE  40SW  55NW.
34 KT...170NE 115SE  85SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 17.0N 144.9W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 55NE  45SE  35SW  45NW.
34 KT...155NE 100SE  75SW 115NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 17.5N 145.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...145NE  90SE  70SW 105NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 18.4N 146.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 45NE  30SE  25SW  35NW.
34 KT...130NE  80SE  65SW  95NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 20.1N 147.7W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 21.6N 149.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 142.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z
 
FORECASTER FARRELL
 
 
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