WTPA44 PHFO 300230
TCDCP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  62
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
500 PM HST THU SEP 29 2005

SINCE MORNING...TROPICAL DEPRESSION KENNETH HAS MAINTAINED A WELL
ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION AND NEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED
NORTH OF THE CENTER. THIS HAS ALLOWED A DATA T-NUMBER TO BE
DETERMINED AGAIN USING THE OBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS. CURRENT
INTENSITIES AT 30/00Z WERE 1.5 AND 2.0. WE WILL KEEP THE INITIAL
INTENSITY AT 30 KT.
 
THE 29/1800 CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSIS SHOWED MORE THAN 30 KNOTS OF WEST
SOUTHWEST SHEAR ACROSS KENNETH. WITH LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION AND
RATHER STRONG SHEAR...KENNETH IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE WITHIN 24
HOURS. THE LATEST GFS AND NAM MODEL RUNS SHOW KENNETH OPENING UP
INTO A TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST.  
THE TROUGH WILL CARRY LOTS OF MOISTURE OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING UNDER A LOW ALOFT SO HEAVY
RAIN IS LIKELY AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE ISLANDS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
 
FORECASTER KODAMA/DONALDSON
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/0300Z 19.1N 151.4W    30 KT
 12HR VT     30/1200Z 19.1N 153.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 24HR VT     01/0000Z 19.1N 155.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATED
  
 
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