WTPA44 PHFO 292031
TCDCP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  61
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1100 AM HST THU SEP 29 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TROPICAL DEPRESSION KENNETH RETAINS A WELL
ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BUT HAS VERY LITTLE DEEP
CONVECTION.  A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 29/1600 UTC SHOWED KENNETH
STRETCHED OUT NORTH TO SOUTH WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 32 KNOTS NORTH
OF THE CENTER. AN AMSU ESTIMATE AT 29/1627 SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS OF
33 KNOTS. NO DATA T-NUMBERS COULD BE COMPUTED USING THE OBJECTIVE
DVORAK ANALYSIS BUT SATELLITE ESTIMATES USING DVORAK MODEL AND
PATTERN T-NUMBERS YIELDED CURRENT INTENSITIES OF 1.5 AND 2.0. 

THE 29/1800 CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSIS SHOWED MORE THAN 30 KNOTS OF WEST
SOUTHWEST SHEAR ACROSS KENNETH. WITH LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION AND
RATHER STRONG SHEAR...KENNETH IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY.
EARLIER GFS MODEL RUNS SHOWED KENNETH CONTINUING AS A REMNANT LOW
BUT LATER RUNS SHOW KENNETH OPENING UP INTO A TROUGH SO OUR
BULLETINS WILL DROP ANY MENTION OF A REMNANT LOW AND JUST DISSIPATE
THE SYSTEM.

THE TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
CARRYING LOTS OF MOISTURE. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING UNDER A LOW
ALOFT SO HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
ISLANDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
 
FORECASTER KODAMA/DONALDSON
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/2100Z 19.1N 150.4W    30 KT
 12HR VT     30/0600Z 19.5N 152.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 24HR VT     30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
$$