WTPA44 PHFO 290841
TCDCP4

TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  59
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1100 PM HST WED SEP 28 2005

IT APPEARS THAT THE PERSISTANT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR THAT KENNETH HAS
BEEN FEELING THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS DONE ITS JOB. SATELLITE
MOVIE LOOPS SHOW THAT KENNETH IS NOW A SHALLOW SYSTEM...THANKS TO
THE SHEAR...AND MOVING JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST IN THE LOW LEVEL
TRADE FLOW. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 280/10.

CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES PROVIDED BY PHFO JTWC GWC AND SAB WERE
AT 1.5 OR 2.0 WHILE A 04Z AMSU-A INTENSITY ESTIMATE BY UW-CIMMS
CAME IN AT 33 KT. WILL GO WITH A CONSERVATIVE 35 KT...IN PART DUE
TO A FLARE UP OF DEEP CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF THE LLCC. MOST OF THE
INTENSITY MODELS WEAKEN KENNETH TO 25 KT IN 36 HOURS...THEN VARY
SOMEWHAT THEREAFTER. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS THE
SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK TO
TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE MORE WESTERLY COURSE THAT KENNETH HAS ASSUMED
IN THE LAST 6 HOURS. THE FORECAST...WHICH KEEPS KENNETH ON A TRACK
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WEST THROUGH 72 HOURS...REMAINS IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT WITH CONSENSUS MODELS AND BAMS. KENNETH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE BIG ISLAND AS A REMNANT LOW THEN JUST SOUTH
OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS THEREAFTER.

FORECASTER CRAIG
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/0900Z 18.6N 147.9W    35 KT
 12HR VT     29/1800Z 19.0N 149.4W    30 KT
 24HR VT     30/0600Z 19.4N 151.5W    30 KT
 36HR VT     30/1800Z 19.8N 153.9W    25 KT
 48HR VT     01/0600Z 20.2N 156.2W    20 KT...DISSIPATING
 72HR VT     02/0600Z 22.0N 163.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
$$