WTPA44 PHFO 282031
TCDCP4

TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  57
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1100 AM HST WED SEP 28 2005

EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT KENNETH NOW HAS AN
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH HIGHER CLOUDS NORTHEAST
OF THE CENTER AND VERY LITTLE ACTIVE CONVECTION. OBJECTIVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 2.0 TO 2.5. WE BEEN CONSERVATIVE AND
KEPT THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 40 KT.

THE MAJOR COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A FAIRLY STRONG 1030MB
HIGH NEAR 36N 138W IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST SOUTHWEST AND WEAKEN. A
LOW ALOFT...NOW NEAR 24N 152W...IS FORECAST TO SHIFT WEST TO 24N
160W AT 1200 UTC ON 1 OCTOBER. THIS LOW EXTENDS DOWN TO AT LEAST
700MB. KENNETH WILL BE MOVING UNDER THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE LOW. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP VERTICAL SHEAR
OVER KENNETH SO THE STORM WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING. ALTHOUGH KENNETH
IS BECOMING A SHALLOW SYSTEM..THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT EXTENDS DOWN
FAR ENOUGH TO KEEP STEERING KENNETH TOWARDS THE WEST NORTHWEST.

WE HAVE ADJUSTED THE TRACK TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ON
A TRACK NORTH OF THE MAIN ISLANDS. THIS TRACK IS STILL LEFT OF ALL
THE MODEL GUIDANCE EXCEPT THE UKMET AND GFS BUT WE WOULD LIKE TO
SEE EVIDENCE OF A CONTINUED NORTHWEST OR WEST NORTHWEST TRACK TODAY 
BEFORE SHIFTING THE TRACK ANY FARTHER TO THE RIGHT.

WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING NEAR KENNETH...THE SYSTEM SHOULD
STEADILY WEAKEN FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS...DROPPING BELOW TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE WIND FIELD WILL BE
ASYMMETRIC WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NORTH OF CENTER. WITH THE
CYCLONE TRACKING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...THE WINDS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
 
FORECASTER KODAMA/DONALDSON
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      28/2100Z 18.4N 146.0W    40 KT
 12HR VT     29/0600Z 19.2N 147.3W    40 KT
 24HR VT     29/1800Z 20.0N 149.3W    35 KT
 36HR VT     30/0600Z 20.4N 151.5W    30 KT
 48HR VT     30/1800Z 21.0N 153.7W    25 KT
 72HR VT     01/1800Z 22.2N 157.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     02/1800Z 24.0N 162.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
$$