WTPA44 PHFO 280916
TCDCP4

TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  55
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1100 PM HST TUE SEP 27 2005

LATEST FIXES FROM ALL AGENCIES HAVE PLACED KENNETH A LITTLE FURTHER 
NORTH AND WEST THAN EXPECTED. EARLIER TODAY KENNETH TRIED TO DEVELOP 
MORE DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE SYSTEM...HOWEVER 0730Z IR IMAGERY 
SHOWS A WEAKENING STATE TO THE CONVECTION AROUND KENNETH. THE FIXES 
MADE AROUND THE 06Z TIME FRAME HAD DVORAK NUMBERS RANGING FROM 1.5 
TO 3.0 FROM THE SATELLITE AGENCIES FOR A WIDE RANGE OF INTENSITY. 
HAVE KEPT WITH THE 45 KNOT WINDS AFTER LOOKING AT 0339Z QUICKSCAT 
PASS OVER KENNETH. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO WIND RADII BASED ON THIS DATA 
TO INCREASE THE WIND RADII TO SLIGHTLY THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.

LAST FEW RUNS OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR KENNETH HAVE BEEN PRETTY 
STEADY BRINGING KENNETH INTO THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ON FRIDAY AS A 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. SHIPS GUIDANCE REMAINS CLOSELY IN LINE WITH THE 
5 PM PACKAGE NUMBERS THEREFORE...THERE WAS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST. ALSO...HAVE ADJUSTED FORECAST TRACK ONLY 
SLIGHTLY. THE OFFICIAL TRACK REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS 
MODEL FORECASTS FOR TRACK. 

GOING TO KEEP WITH THE WEAKENING TREND OF KENNETH AFTER THE 12 HOUR 
FORECAST POINT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS DROPPING INTO THE MAIN 
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS EVENING FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL INCREASE 
THE LAYER SHEAR GREATLY AROUND THE ISLANDS. COOLER SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES ALSO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR THE WEAKENING OF 
THE SYSTEM. 

KENNETH COULD JUST BE A LOW LEVEL SWIRL OF CLOUDS AS IT APPROACHES 
THE ISLAND CHAIN. HOWEVER...THERE WILL LIKELY BE ABUNDANT MOISTURE 
WITH THE SYSTEM. THE UPPER LOW IN THE AREA COULD COMBINE WITH 
KENNETH/S MOISTURE FIELD FOR A VERY WET FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR THE 
ISLANDS. TROPICAL SYSTEMS INTERACTING WITH THE ISLANDS HAVE PRODUCED 
VERY HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING IN THE PAST...KENNETH HAS A 
POSSIBILITY PRODUCING THESE CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. 
 
FORECASTER PROTON/HOUSTON
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      28/0900Z 17.1N 144.2W    45 KT
 12HR VT     28/1800Z 18.2N 145.6W    45 KT
 24HR VT     29/0600Z 19.0N 147.7W    40 KT
 36HR VT     29/1800Z 19.4N 149.6W    35 KT
 48HR VT     30/0600Z 19.7N 151.3W    30 KT
 72HR VT     01/0600Z 19.8N 154.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     02/0600Z 19.7N 158.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     03/0600Z...REMNANT LOW
 
 
$$