WTPA44 PHFO 272105
TCDCP4

TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  53
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1100 AM HST TUE SEP 27 2005

THE THUNDERSTORM STRUCTURE OF TROPICAL STORM KENNETH APPEARS
INCREASINGLY SPOTTY AND UNIMPRESSIVE. WE HAVE KEPT ITS MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS AT 45 KNOTS WITH DIFFERENCE TO 40 KNOT QUICKSCAT
OBSERVATIONS AND A DATA T OF 3.O. KENNETH SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEARING FLOW ALOFT AS WELL AS
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPS. MODELS INDICATE THE SHEARING WINDS ALOFT
WILL BE STRENGTHENING WITH TIME MAKING KENNETHS ABILITY TO SUSTAIN
ITS TROPICAL STORM STATUS VERY UNLIKELY AS IT MOVES FURTHER
NORTHWESTWARD. HOWEVER THE WEAKENING AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION OF
THE STORM WILL NOT REMOVE THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL BY ITS
REMNANTS THIS WEEK END.

THE CURRENT NORTHWESTERLY PATH HAS BEEN PRESERVED FOR THE SHORTER
TERM BUT HAS CHANGED TO A MORE WESTERLY ORIENTATION IN THE LATE
PERIODS AS INCREASING SHEAR WOULD DICTATE. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE MAJORITY OF MODELS AND FAVORS THE CONCENSUS MODELS IN THE
MAIN.

FORECASTER MATSUDA
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      27/2100Z 15.1N 142.2W    45 KT
 12HR VT     28/0600Z 15.7N 142.8W    45 KT
 24HR VT     28/1800Z 16.7N 144.1W    40 KT
 36HR VT     29/0600Z 17.6N 145.6W    35 KT
 48HR VT     29/1800Z 18.3N 147.1W    30 KT
 72HR VT     30/1800Z 18.7N 150.9W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     01/1800Z 18.8N 154.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$