WTPA44 PHFO 270240
TCDCP4

TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  50
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
5 PM HST MON SEP 26 2005

EXCEPT FOR A COUPLE OF SMALL THUNDERSTORMS THAT JUST POPPED UP
SOUTHEAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER OF KENNETH...DEEP CONVECTION HAS
ALL BUT VANISHED IN THE LAST 6 HOURS. MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO OBSCURE THE LOW LEVEL CENTER HOWEVER...SO CONFIDENCE IN
THE CURRENT POSITION IS FAIR AT BEST. CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM THE VARIOUS SATELLITE AGENCIES ARE LESS PROBLEMATIC..RANGING
AGAIN FROM 3.0 TO 3.5...OR BETWEEN 45 AND 55 KT. BASED ON THE
PAUCITY OF DEEP CONVECTION...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
LOWERED TO A STILL CONSERVATIVE 55 KT.

IT LOOKS LIKE KENNETH HAS STARTED ITS ANTICIPATED TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED AT 270/5. PRESSURE
FALLS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS OVER HAWAII LIKELY INDICATES THE
DEPARTURE OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH. IT WAS THIS HIGH THAT STEERED
KENNETH TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE HIGH IS
BEING REPLACED BY A MID AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH WILL TURN
KENNETH TO THE NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS
SCENARIO...PLACING KENNETH JUST SOUTH OF A TIGHT BUNCH CONSENSUS
AND DYNAMICAL MODELS. 
 
KENNETH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...
FIRSTLY AS IT MOVES IN A STABLE MARINE ENVIRONMENT...AND SECONDLY AS
IT MOVES INTO INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. ALSO...SINCE KENNETH WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRACK AS JOVA...
IT MAY MOVE OVER COOLER OCEAN TEMPERATURES LEFT IN THE WAKE OF
JOVA. SOMETIME DURING DAY 4 AND DAY 5...KENNETH SHOULD BECOME A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION...AND ASSUME A WESTWARD TRACK IN THE TRADE FLOW.
 
FORECASTER CRAIG
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      27/0300Z 14.4N 141.4W    55 KT
 12HR VT     27/1200Z 14.8N 142.3W    50 KT
 24HR VT     28/0000Z 15.8N 143.7W    50 KT
 36HR VT     28/1200Z 16.9N 145.3W    45 KT
 48HR VT     29/0000Z 18.2N 147.0W    40 KT
 72HR VT     30/0000Z 20.0N 150.6W    35 KT
 96HR VT     01/0000Z 21.2N 153.7W    30 KT
120HR VT     02/0000Z 22.4N 156.7W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 
 
$$