WTPA44 PHFO 261505
TCDCP4

TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  48
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
5 AM HST MON SEP 26 2005

KENNETH HAS WEAKENED SINCE MOVING WEST OF 140W. BETWEEN 06 AND
12UTC...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A DECREASE IN THE AREA OF COLD
CLOUD TOPS. IT ALSO APPEARED THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WAS EMERGING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THESE CHANGES STRONGLY
SUGGEST THAT KENNETH IS WEAKENING.

CURRENT INTENSITIES FROM SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT 1130
UTC RANGED FROM 3.0 TO 3.5. WE HAVE BEEN A BIT CONSERVATIVE AND
DROPPED THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 60 KT. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE WEST OVER KENNETH AND WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR ALOFT WEST THROUGH NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.
THESE ARE INDICATIONS THAT WE SHOULD CONTINUED WEAKENING OF THE
SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST...THEN NORTHWEST. 
 
WITH CONTINUED WEAKENING KENNETH IS LIKELY TO BECOME A MORE SHALLOW
SYSTEM SO WE HAVE SHIFTED THE TRACK SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST
BASED ON THE EXPECTATION THAT THE TRACK WILL BE MORE STRONGLY
INFLUENCED BY LOWER LEVEL STEERING FLOW.
 
FORECASTER HOUSTON/DONALDSON
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/1500Z 14.8N 141.1W    60 KT
 12HR VT     27/0000Z 14.9N 141.8W    55 KT
 24HR VT     27/1200Z 15.4N 142.8W    50 KT
 36HR VT     28/0000Z 16.2N 144.0W    45 KT
 48HR VT     28/1200Z 17.1N 145.4W    40 KT
 72HR VT     29/1200Z 18.6N 148.1W    35 KT
 96HR VT     30/1200Z 19.9N 151.0W    30 KT
120HR VT     01/1200Z 20.9N 154.1W    25 KT
 
 
$$