WTPA44 PHFO 260905
TCDCP4

HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  47
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
11 PM HST SUN SEP 25 2005
 
HURRICANE KENNETH HAS VERY RELUCTANTLY ENTERED INTO THE CENTRAL
NORTH PACIFIC TONIGHT. THIS WAS DETERMINED AFTER COORDINATION WITH
THE HURRICANE SPECIALIST AT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER OF THE 
TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER IN MIAMI...FLORIDA. WE EXAMINED THE GOES
SATELLITE IMAGERY...SOME VERY TIMELY MICROWAVE PASSES...AND FIXES
FROM THE SATELLITE AGENCIES TO MAKE THIS DETERMINATION. BASED ON
ALL OF THIS EVIDENCE...IT APPEARS THAT THE CENTER OF KENNETH IS
WELL INTO THE CPHC AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY AS OF 11 PM HST. THE
MOVEMENT FOR THIS ADVISORY IS TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST...OR 210
DEGREES...AT 4 KT. 

THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF KENNETH APPEARS TO BE MUCH MORE AMBIGUOUS 
THAN THE LOCATION OF ITS CENTER TONIGHT. IT WOULD APPEAR FROM THE 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE LOCATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER THAT IT 
IS FEELING INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE WEST OR WEST- 
SOUTHWEST. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SEEMS TO BE SHOWING A WEAK UPPER 
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH SHIFTING SOUTHWARD TOWARD KENNETH. HOWEVER... 
THE LATEST UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INDICATES VALUES 
OF ONLY ABOUT 4 KT FROM THE WEST. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS 
HURRICANE IS ALSO LIKELY CAUSING ADDITIONAL OCEAN UPWELLING IN ITS 
VICINITY. SATELLITE AGENCIES ARE PROVIDING CURRENT T-NUMBER 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 3.0 TO 4.0. FOR THIS ADVISORY... 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF KENNETH IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 65 KT.

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST TRACK AND
INTENSITY FOR THIS INITIAL CPHC ADVISORY PACKAGE. THESE CHANGES
WERE MAINLY TO ADJUST THE FORECAST INTENSITY AND TRACK SLIGHTLY
CLOSER TO THE GUIDANCE. THE TRACK WAS NUDGED TO THE RIGHT...WHICH
WAS CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS MODELS...GUNA...GUNS AND CONU BEYOND 36
HOURS. THE FORECAST INTENSITY WAS REDUCED 5 KT AT 36 AND 48 HOURS
BASED ON THE GUIDANCE FROM THE SHIPS MODEL.
 
FORECASTER HOUSTON
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/0900Z 15.2N 140.2W    65 KT
 12HR VT     26/1800Z 15.1N 140.9W    65 KT
 24HR VT     27/0600Z 15.4N 141.8W    60 KT
 36HR VT     27/1800Z 16.1N 142.9W    55 KT
 48HR VT     28/0600Z 17.1N 144.3W    50 KT
 72HR VT     29/0600Z 19.0N 147.0W    45 KT
 96HR VT     30/0600Z 20.3N 149.8W    35 KT
120HR VT     01/0600Z 21.5N 152.9W    30 KT
  
$$