WTPA43 PHFO 242034
TCDCP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  52
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
11 AM HST SAT SEP 24 2005
 
THE SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
DEPRESSION JOVA IS SHOWING VERY LITTLE WEST WIND COMPONENT WITHIN
THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT AND IS DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE LATEST
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE SATELLITE AGENCIES VARIED FROM T
NUMBERS OF 1.0 OR LESS TO THE SYSTEM BEING TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY.
BASED ON THESE DVORAK SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES AND CLOUD MOTION
VECTORS...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY HAS BEEN HELD AT
25 KT.
 
THE MOTION OF THE DEPRESSION IS WEST...OR TOWARD 285 DEGREES AT 8
KT. THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO DICTATE THE MOTION OF
JOVA. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL TRACK HAS BEEN HELD GENERALLY WEST
BUT IN ACCORD WITH THE BAM SHALLOW FORECAST. TROPICAL DEPRESSION
JOVA HAS WEAKENED TO 1014 MB AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TO AN
INVERTED TROUGH WITHIN 24 HOURS. 
 
THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS WEAKENED...OR NEGATED...THE TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS MORNING. IT IS ALSO PROVIDING A
SOURCE OF LOWER AND MIDDLE TROPOSPHERIC TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ISLANDS. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE
INSTABILITY CAUSED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF
KAUAI MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS...OVER SOME OF THE ISLANDS. OTHER THAN THIS LOCALIZED
THREAT OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND THE REDUCED TRADE
WINDS...JOVA AND HER REMNANTS WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
 
FORECASTER FARRELL
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/2100Z 23.2N 154.2W    25 KT
 12HR VT     25/0600Z 23.4N 155.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 24HR VT     25/1800Z 23.7N 157.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATED
 36HR VT     26/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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