WTPA43 PHFO 241445
TCDCP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  51
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
5 AM HST SAT SEP 24 2005
 
THE WELL DEFINED SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOVA HAS REMAINED DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR
ALMOST 24 HOURS. THE LATEST INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE SATELLITE
AGENCIES VARIED FROM T NUMBERS OF LESS THAN 1.0 TO 1.0. BASED ON
THESE DVORAK SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS
ADVISORY HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 25 KT.
 
THE MOTION OF THE DEPRESSION IS WEST...OR TOWARD 280 DEGREES AT 11
KT. THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO DICTATE THE MOTION OF
JOVA. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL TRACK WAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY MORE TO
THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. TROPICAL DEPRESSION
JOVA...AND ITS REMNANT LOW AFTER 24 HOURS...ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
ALONG A GENERAL WESTWARD COURSE AT ABOUT 11 KT THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF JOVA
AS A RESULT OF VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE SYSTEM. THIS
SHEARING IS BEING CAUSED BY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT ALONG
THE EASTERN FLANK OF AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH LOCATED WEST OF
KAUAI. JOVA IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW
PRESSURE AREA AFTER 24 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. 

THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS REDUCED...OR NEGATED...THE TRADE WINDS
ACROSS MOST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS MORNING. IT IS ALSO A
SOURCE OF LOWER AND MIDDLE TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE ISLANDS. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY CAUSED BY
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY
SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...OVER SOME OF THE ISLANDS.
FOR THE MOMENT...IT APPEARS THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY LOCALIZED
FLOODING WOULD BE ACROSS THE WESTERN END OF THE ISLAND CHAIN DURING
DAYTIME HEATING LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. 
  
FORECASTER HOUSTON
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/1500Z 23.1N 153.8W    25 KT
 12HR VT     25/0000Z 23.2N 155.6W    25 KT
 24HR VT     25/1200Z 23.4N 158.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     26/0000Z 23.6N 160.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     26/1200Z 23.9N 162.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     27/1200Z 24.5N 168.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW 
 
$$