WTPA43 PHFO 240845
TCDCP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  50
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
11 PM HST FRI SEP 23 2005
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOVA REMAINS A COMPLETELY EXPOSED LOWER TO
MIDDLE LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT IS DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING WEST OR TOWARDS 280 DEGREES AT 9 KT. THE
LATEST INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE SATELLITE AGENCIES VARIED FROM
LESS THAN 1.0 TO 2.0. A SHIP /WTST/ EAST OF JOVA REPORTED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 29 KT AT 0600Z. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY
IS MAINTAINED AT 30 KT. 

THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW GRADUAL WEAKENING OF JOVA
AS A RESULT OF STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE SYSTEM. AT THE
MOMENT...JOVA IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48
HOURS. THIS DISSIPATION MAY OCCUR EVEN SOONER IF NO DEEP CONVECTION
DEVELOPS LATER TONIGHT OR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
 
THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BEND JOVA MORE TO THE WEST.
AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL TRACK WAS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOVA...AND THE
REMNANT LOW AFTER 36 HOURS...ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG A GENERAL
WESTWARD COURSE AT ABOUT 9 KT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. 
  
FORECASTER HOUSTON
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/0900Z 23.1N 152.6W    30 KT
 12HR VT     24/1800Z 23.5N 154.0W    30 KT
 24HR VT     25/0600Z 24.0N 155.9W    25 KT
 36HR VT     25/1800Z 24.4N 157.8W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     26/0600Z 24.7N 159.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     27/0600Z 25.1N 163.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$