WTPA43 PHFO 221511 TCDCP3 HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 43 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 5 AM HST THU SEP 22 2005 A VERY TIMELY TRMM PASS AT 1111 UTC HELPED PROVIDE THE BEST ESTIMATE FOR THE INITIAL LOCATION OF THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOVA FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. AS A RESULT OF THIS EXTREMELY VALUABLE INFORMATION FOUND ON THE NRL AND FNMOC WEB SITES...IT WAS DETERMINED THAT JOVA CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS 330 DEG AT 7 KT. DVORAK SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL OF THE SATELLITE AGENCIES ALSO CONTINUED TO INDICATE THAT JOVA HAS WEAKENED. THE TRMM PASS MENTIONED ABOVE SHOWED THE SOUTH QUADRANT OF THE EYEWALL APPEARS TO BE PARTIALLY OPEN. A RECENT CIMSS/NESDIS-USAF/NRL AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE BASED ON 1233 UTC AMSU DATA ALSO SHOWED CONSIDERABLE WEAKENING OF JOVA. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS DECREASED TO 80 KT. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AS DEPICTED BY THE UW/CIMSS ANALYSES...REMAINS THE LIKELY CAUSE FOR THIS WEAKENING THAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED DURING THE PAST 12 TO 18 HOURS. THIS SHEAR WILL LIKELY TO INCREASE AS JOVA CONTINUES MOVING NORTH NORTHWESTWARD ACCORDING TO THE ANALYSES SUPPLIED BY THE UW/CIMSS. THE FORECAST TRACK HAS CHANGED LITTLE THROUGH DAY 3 AND CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THE CONSENSUS MODELS CLOSELY. AFTER 72 TO 96 HOURS...THE TRACK WAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE RIGHT TO INDICATE THAT JOVA WILL LIKELY BE PICKED UP IN THE WESTERLIES...AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL. THE FORECAST INTENSITIES WERE DECREASED TO BETTER AGREE WITH INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LOWER SSTS. THESE ARE ALSO MORE IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE. ONCE IT REACHES THE HIGHER LATITUDES AT DAYS 4 AND 5...JOVA MAY GAIN NEW LIFE AS AN EXTRATROPICAL GALE. A FINAL NOTE OF CAUTION...THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR COULD CAUSE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF JOVA TO DECOUPLE. IN THAT CASE...THIS WEAKENED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION MIGHT BE CARRIED TO THE LEFT OF THIS FORECAST TRACK FORECASTER HOUSTON FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/1500Z 19.7N 148.2W 80 KT 12HR VT 23/0000Z 20.7N 149.0W 70 KT 24HR VT 23/1200Z 22.1N 150.2W 65 KT 36HR VT 24/0000Z 24.1N 151.4W 55 KT 48HR VT 24/1200Z 26.4N 152.8W 45 KT 72HR VT 25/1200Z 31.4N 154.5W 35 KT 96HR VT 26/1200Z 36.6N 154.7W 35 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 27/1200Z 40.1N 149.2W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$