WTPA43 PHFO 220917 TCDCP3 HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 42 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 11 PM HST WED SEP 21 2005 HURRICANE JOVA APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARDS 330 DEG AT 7 KT. IT WAS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE EXACT POSITION OF THE CENTER TONIGHT BASED ON THE IR IMAGERY...SINCE JOVA LOST ITS DISTINCT EYE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHORTLY BEFORE THE FINAL VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES WERE AVAILABLE. FORTUNATELY..AMSU AND SSMI MICROWAVE PASSES WERE AVAILABLE ON THE NRL WEB SITE AT 0326 UTC AND 0425 UTC... RESPECTIVELY. THE 0600 UTC POSITION WAS DETERMINED USING THESE MICROWAVE POSITIONS AND THE POSITION ESTIMATES PROVIDED BY THE SATELLITE AGENCIES. DVORAK SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL OF THE SATELLITE AGENCIES ALSO REFLECTED THE FACT THAT JOVA LOST ITS EYE. AS A RESULT THE INTENSITY OF JOVA WAS DECREASED TO 90 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS THE LIKELY CAUSE FOR THIS WEAKENING. THIS SHEAR WILL LIKELY INCREASE AS JOVA CONTINUES MOVING NORTH NORTHWESTWARD ACCORDING TO THE ANALYSES SUPPLIED BY THE UW/CIMSS. THE FORECAST TRACK WAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT AFTER 24 HOURS. THIS WAS AN EFFORT TO MOVE THE TRACK CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS MODELS...GUNS...GUNA AND CONU. AFTER 96 HOURS...THE TRACK WAS SHIFTED MORE TO THE RIGHT TO INDICATE THAT JOVA WILL LIKELY BE PICKED UP IN THE WESTERLIES AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AS IT BECOMES A PART OF A MID-LATITUDE ENVIRONMENT THAT SHOULD PROVE TO BE VERY HOSTILE FOR A TROPICAL SYSTEM. THE FORECAST INTENSITIES WERE DECREASED TO BETTER AGREE WITH INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LOWER SSTS. THESE ARE ALSO MORE IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE. NOTE THAT AT THE HIGHER LATITUDES AT DAYS 4 AND 5...JOVA WILL LIKELY GAIN NEW LIFE AS AN EXTRATROPICAL GALE. THE INITIAL WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON QUIKSCAT DATA. THE 12 FT SEAS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED. FORECASTER HOUSTON FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0900Z 19.0N 147.7W 90 KT 12HR VT 22/1800Z 19.8N 148.4W 80 KT 24HR VT 23/0600Z 21.1N 149.4W 70 KT 36HR VT 23/1800Z 22.8N 150.6W 55 KT 48HR VT 24/0600Z 24.9N 151.9W 45 KT 72HR VT 25/0600Z 30.7N 154.3W 35 KT 96HR VT 26/0600Z 37.0N 154.2W 35 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 27/0600Z 42.5N 150.2W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$