WTPA43 PHFO 211435
TCDCP3

HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  39
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
5 AM HST WED SEP 21 2005
 
HURRICANE JOVA REMAINS AN INTENSE CATEGORY 3 STORM SYSTEM WITH NO
CHANGE IN INTENSITY IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. ALL AGENCIES ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH A FINAL T AND CURRENT T OF 5.5...WHICH YIELDS 102 KT
ON THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATION SYSTEM. INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST...315 DEGREES...AT 6 KT...7 MPH.
 
NO CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK WHICH IS IN
CONFORMANCE WITH CONSENSUS MODELS WHICH HAVE BEEN JOINED FOR THIS
PACKAGE BY THE GFDI. BEYOND 72 HOURS IT APPEARS THAT THE FORWARD
MOTION WILL BE ACCELLERATED BY THE MID LEVEL LOW AND MID AND UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING DOWN JUST NORTHWEST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
IN CURRENT MODEL RUNS. WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTION AS TO
WHETHER THE SHEAR THIS TROUGH WILL GENERATE OVER THE STORM WILL BE
ENOUGH TO SHEAR THE SYSTEM...HAVE KEPT WITH THE GUIDANCE IN
DOWNPLAYING THIS EFFECT FOR NOW. WITHOUT SHEARING...JOVA WILL BE
ACCELLERATED RAPIDLY NORTHWARD INTACT...AS SEEN IN MOST DYNAMIC
MODELS...SINCE FORWARD MOTION IS CONSISTANT WITH THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL FLOWS. JOVA WILL INCUR A MORE DEFINITIVE WEAKENING DUE TO
RAPIDLY COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ONCE SHE MOVES NORTH OF
30N.
 
ON ITS PRESENT TRACK...JOVA WILL HAVE MINIMAL DIRECT INFLUENCE ON
ISLAND WEATHER. AS SHE PASSES EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THERE WILL BE A SLACKENING OF TRADE WIND FLOW...
ESPECIALLY FOR DAYS 3 AND BEYOND...THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. ON
THE OTHER HAND...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING DOWN
NORTHWEST OF KAUAI WILL LIKELY HAVE MORE EFFECT ON ISLAND
WEATHER...DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE ISLANDS AND LEADING
TO LOCAL CONVECTION FUELED BY MOISTURE DRAWN INTO THE ISLANDS AFTER
BEING GENERATED BY JOVA. 

AS HURRICANE JOVA REMAINS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM...ALL INTERESTS IN
THE AREA...INCLUDING THOSE IN AND AROUND THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
 
FORECASTER FARRELL
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/1500Z 17.6N 146.7W   100 KT
 12HR VT     22/0000Z 18.2N 147.4W    95 KT
 24HR VT     22/1200Z 19.1N 148.3W    95 KT
 36HR VT     23/0000Z 20.2N 149.3W    90 KT
 48HR VT     23/1200Z 21.7N 150.3W    90 KT
 72HR VT     24/1200Z 25.9N 152.2W    85 KT
 96HR VT     25/1200Z 32.0N 153.5W    70 KT
120HR VT     26/1200Z 40.5N 154.1W    60 KT
 
 
$$