WTPA43 PHFO 210832
TCDCP3

HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  38
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
11 PM HST TUE SEP 20 2005

AS SHE DID LAST NIGHT...JOVA HAS AGAIN MADE A SLIGHT JOG TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE BEST TRACK HAS BEEN
SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED TO LESSEN THE EFFECT OF THIS JOG ON MODEL OUTPUT
AND TO BETTER DEFINE THE GENERAL MOTION OF THE STORM FOR THIS
PACKAGE. 

HURRICANE JOVA REMAINS AN INTENSE CATEGORY 3 STORM SYSTEM WITH NO
CHANGE IN INTENSITY IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. ALL AGENCIES ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH A FINAL T AND CURRENT T OF 5.5...WHICH YIELDS 102 KT
ON THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATION SYSTEM. INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST...315 DEGREES...AT 6 KT...7 MPH.

THE CURRENT TRACK IS PARALLEL AND VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK
THROUGH 72 HOURS. A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO THE LEFT WAS MADE TO THE
CURRENT TRACK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL JOG WEST NORTHWESTWARD OF
THE SYSTEM OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS...BUT THE CURRENT TRACK WELL
CONFORMS TO THE GUNS AND CONU CONSENSUS...ALBEIT TO THE LEFT OF
GFDI EXPECTATIONS. 

BEYOND 72 HOURS THE TRACK CONTINUES TO FOLLOW GUNS AND CONU
GUIDANCE...AND IN DOING SO DIVERGES SOMEWHAT TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PAST OFFICIAL TRACK. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD IT APPEARS THAT THE
MOTION WILL ALSO BE ACCELLERATED BY THE MID LEVEL LOW AND MID AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING DOWN JUST NORTHWEST OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS IN CURRENT MODEL RUNS. WITH THIS ACCELLERATION...SEEN IN
ALL MODELS...THE SYSTEM WILL NOT LIKELY BE SHEARED AS ITS MOTION IS
CONSISTANT WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOWS. JOVA WILL INCUR A
MORE DEFINITIVE WEAKENING HOWEVER...DUE TO RAPIDLY COOLING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES NORTH OF 30N.

ON ITS PRESENT TRACK...JOVA SHOULD HAVE LITTLE INFLUENCE ON ISLAND
WEATHER. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT SLACKENING OF TRADE WIND FLOW...
ESPECIALLY FOR DAYS 3 AND BEYOND...THAT WOULD BE FOR THE COMING
WEEKEND...BUT THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING DOWN
NORTHWEST OF KAUAI WILL LIKELY HAVE MORE EFFECT ON ISLAND WEATHER
THAN WILL JOVA. NONETHELESS...IT WOULD BE BEST FOR ALL INTERESTS IN
THE AREA...INCLUDING THOSE IN AND AROUND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...TO
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
 
FORECASTER FARRELL
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/0900Z 17.3N 146.3W   100 KT
 12HR VT     21/1800Z 17.8N 147.1W    95 KT
 24HR VT     22/0600Z 18.7N 148.0W    95 KT
 36HR VT     22/1800Z 19.7N 148.9W    90 KT
 48HR VT     23/0600Z 20.8N 149.8W    90 KT
 72HR VT     24/0600Z 24.6N 152.0W    85 KT
 96HR VT     25/0600Z 29.9N 153.4W    70 KT
120HR VT     26/0600Z 37.9N 154.1W    60 KT
 
 
$$