WTPA43 PHFO 201431
TCDCP3

HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  35
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
5 AM HST TUE SEP 20 2005
 
HURRICANE JOVA CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD TRACK
THAN EARLIER FORECAST AND THUS THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK HAS AGAIN
BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THIS IS IN
ACCORDANCE WITH THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE GUNS...CONU AND GUNA...BUT
WELL TO THE LEFT OF GFDI. INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD 305 DEGREES AT 7
KT. CPHC CALCULATED A FINAL T OF 5.5...WHILE GWC AND JTWC DROPPED
IT BACK TO A 5.0 FOR THIS PACKAGE. HAVE KEPT THE INITIAL STRENGTH
CONSTANT AT 100 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH CPHC AND HAVE SLOWED THE
WEAKENING TREND WITH TIME FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGES DUE SLIGHTLY
LESS COOLING OF THE SEA SURFACE ALONG THE CURRENT TRACK. 
 
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS SEEN IN MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH IS BRINGING A
DEVELOPING UPPER LOW AND TROUGH SOUTHWARD TO A POSITION SOME 500
MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI LATE FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP JOVA ON THE
PROJECTED NORTHWESTERLY COURSE THROUGH 96 HOURS OR THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...BUT WILL NOT LIKELY RESULT IN STRONG ENOUGH SHEAR OVER
THE SYSTEM TO DESTROY HER CIRCULATION. MODELS THEN MOVE THIS UPPER
LOW WESTWARD WITH TIME OVER THE WEEKEND...AND THIS MAY ALLOW A
SOMEWHAT WEAKENED JOVA TO TAKE A MORE WESTERLY OR WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY TRACK BEYOND 96 HOURS. THIS WOULD TAKE THE SYSTEM
WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...KEEPING THE
ISLANDS IN LIGHT WINDS AS IT PASSES BY AND PROVIDING A MOIST...
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH JOVA IS PULLED BY THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL DEPEND THE CHANCES FOR HEAVY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
 
THUS THE MAIN EFFECTS OF JOVA FOR THE ISLANDS AT THIS TIME IS
EXPECTED TO BE AN INCREASE IN HEAVY SHOWERS...ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND UNCOMFORTABLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS NEXT WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...AS WITH ALL TROPICAL SYSTEMS...TRACK AND INTENSITY
FORECASTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. INTERESTS IN AND AROUND THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND ON THE NEARBY WATERS ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS STORM CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
 
FORECASTER FARRELL
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/1500Z 16.6N 144.9W   100 KT
 12HR VT     21/0000Z 17.0N 145.7W    95 KT
 24HR VT     21/1200Z 17.6N 146.7W    95 KT
 36HR VT     22/0000Z 18.3N 147.5W    90 KT
 48HR VT     22/1200Z 19.4N 148.2W    90 KT
 72HR VT     23/1200Z 21.7N 150.2W    85 KT
 96HR VT     24/1200Z 24.4N 152.8W    80 KT
120HR VT     25/1200Z 27.9N 156.2W    75 KT
 
 
$$