WTPA43 PHFO 191433
TCDCP3

HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
5 AM HST MON SEP 19 2005
 
HURRICANE JOVA CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE CHANGE
IN SPEED OR INTENSITY. THE ACTUAL TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
TO THE RIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MUCH MORE RELIABLE RECENT FIXES
USING A NOW APPARANT EYE LOCATION. INITIAL MOTION IS 305 DEGREES AT
7 KT. CPHC...GWC AND SAB CALCULATED A FINAL T OF 5.0...WHICH YIELDS
A 90 KT INTENSITY...INDICATING LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.

TRACK GUIDANCE HAS BECOME A BIT MORE DIVERGENT WITH THIS ISSUANCE.
CONU...GUNA AND GUNS CONTINUES IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT HOWEVER AND
EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT STRAIGHTENING OF THE TRACK FROM THIS GUIDANCE
AROUND DAY 2 HAVE KEPT IT IN CLOSE AGREEMENT...ALBEIT A BIT TO THE
RIGHT AS A BOW TO THE GFDI. THIS KEEPS JOVA ON A NORTHWEST COURSE
THROUGHOUT THE FIVE DAY FORECAST...PASSING SOME 500 MILES TO THE
EAST OF HILO ON THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII ON THURSDAY. THE CURRENT
TRACK APPEARS TO GIVE SOMEWHAT LESS CREDENCE TO THE EFFECTS OF THE
MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BY WEDNESDAY...AND ALLOWS FOR A SLIGHT TURN TOWARD
A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION ON FRIDAY AS THIS TROUGH MOVES
RATHER QUICKLY OFF TO THE WEST. THIS CONTINUATION ON A
NORTHWESTERLY TRACK INTO DAY 5 IS THE ONLY MAJOR VARIATION FROM THE
PREVIOUS TRACK...ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT SLOWER WEAKENING DUE ONLY TO
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IS ANOTHER MINOR CHANGE SINCE THE
EFFECTS OF THIS TROUGH ALOFT WOULD NOW APPEAR TO HAVE LESS OF AN
INFLUENCE ON JOVA.
 
FORECASTER FARRELL
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/1500Z 15.4N 142.5W    90 KT
 12HR VT     20/0000Z 15.9N 143.3W    90 KT
 24HR VT     20/1200Z 16.4N 144.1W    85 KT
 36HR VT     21/0000Z 17.0N 144.9W    80 KT
 48HR VT     21/1200Z 17.5N 145.7W    75 KT
 72HR VT     22/1200Z 18.4N 146.6W    70 KT
 96HR VT     23/1200Z 20.1N 147.7W    65 KT
120HR VT     24/1200Z 21.6N 149.8W    60 KT
 
$$