WTPA43 PHFO 190231
TCDCP3

HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
5 PM HST SUN SEP 18 2005
 
HURRICANE JOVA CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME
PACE AS 6 HOURS AGO. INITIAL MOTION IS 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT. CPHC
AND GWC ARRIVED AT FINAL T NUMBERS OF 5.0...WHILE JTWC CAME IN AT
4.5. AODTS OF 5.0 WERE DERIVED BY BOTH CPHC AND JTWC. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY FOR THIS FORECAST REMAINS AT 90 KT.
 
TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES IN GOOD AGREEMENT...KEEPING JOVA ON A
NORTHWEST COURSE THROUGH 48 HOURS...THEN TURNING THE SYSTEM TOWARD
THE NORTH NORTHWEST. THE TURN TO THE RIGHT IS IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT SOUTHEAST OF A MID AND UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WHICH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NORTH THROUGH WEST OF
HAWAII. JOVA HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT IN THE LAST 6 TO 12
HOURS. THE FORECAST TRACK WHICH HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY...IS
JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE CLOSELY CLUSTERED CONU GUNA GUNS AND
ENSEMBLES. EXCEPT FOR A COUPLE OF OUTLIERS...THE OTHER OBJECTIVE
AIDS ARE ALSO TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 48 HOURS...THEN SPREAD OUT
THEREAFTER.
 
THE FARTHER NORTH JOVA MOVES...THE COOLER THE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IT WILL ENCOUNTER. THE FORECAST DECREASE IN INTENSITY
AS A RESULT OF THE COOLER WATERS HAS BEEN DELAYED...AS JOVA WILL BE
OVER WARM WATER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. THE CLOSER JOVA GETS TO
THE UPPER TROUGH THE GREATER VERTICAL SHEAR IT WILL SEE. BY 96
HOURS...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR JOVA TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM
AS IT MOVES INTO THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
 
FORECASTER CRAIG
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/0300Z 14.6N 141.5W    90 KT
 12HR VT     19/1200Z 15.2N 142.5W    90 KT
 24HR VT     20/0000Z 15.8N 143.7W    85 KT
 36HR VT     20/1200Z 16.3N 144.8W    80 KT
 48HR VT     21/0000Z 16.9N 145.7W    75 KT
 72HR VT     22/0000Z 17.7N 146.6W    65 KT
 96HR VT     23/0000Z 19.3N 147.5W    60 KT
120HR VT     24/0000Z 21.6N 149.0W    55 KT
 
 
$$