WTPA42 PHFO 050235
TCDCP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
5 PM HST THU AUG 04 2005
 
TD ONE-C HAD ONE LAST BURST OF CONVECTION EARLIER TODAY...BUT THAT 
HAS FADED...AND IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO A LOW LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL HAS 
EMERGED FROM BENEATH THE HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS. GIVEN THE LACK OF 
CONVECTION...HFO...SAB AND JTWC WERE ALL NOT ABLE TO OBTAIN FIX 
ESTIMATES...MEANING THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY BELOW 25 KT INTENSITY. 
VISIBLE IMAGERY LOOPS INDICATE THAT THERE IS NO LONGER ANY WESTERLY 
WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE TD ONE-C...MEANING THAT IT HAS DEGENERATED 
INTO JUST AN OPEN WAVE. AM GOING WITH A 25KT INTENSITY TO 
START...BUT THAT IS LIKELY QUITE GENEROUS. TD ONE-C IS REALLY 
NOTHING MORE THAN JUST A LOW LEVEL SWIRL. 

DESPITE SUPPORTIVE UPPER LEVELS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SHEAR...IT LOOKS 
LIKE SSTS WERE JUST A LITTLE TOO COOL...SO CONVECTION NEVER REALLY 
FIRED LAST NITE AND THIS MORNINGS BURST WAS A LITTLE TOO LATE. ALSO 
LIKELY PLAYING A ROLE IN THE DEMISE OF TD ONE-C WAS THE CONVECTION 
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM NEAR 10N 140W WHICH POSSIBLY CUT OFF INFLOW 
OF HIGH ENERGY AIR INTO TD ONE-C. ON A SIDE NOTE...WE ARE NOT 
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATING ANY DEVELOPMENT FROM THAT CONVECTION IN THE 
NEAR FUTURE. 

THE REMNANTS OF TD ONE-C WILL BE MONITORED IN THE UNLIKELY EVENT IT 
STRENGTHENS. BARRING THAT POSSIBILITY...THIS WILL BE THE FINAL 
BULLETIN ON THIS SYSTEM. 
 
FORECASTER NASH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/0300Z 14.5N 145.6W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 12HR VT     05/1200Z 14.4N 147.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     06/0000Z 14.4N 149.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     06/1200Z 14.4N 152.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     07/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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