WTPA42 PHFO 042030
TCDCP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
11 AM HST THU AUG 04 2005
 
ONE-C REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AND DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...EVEN WITH
THE EARLY MORNING VISIBLE IMAGES.  THE CENTER WAS RELOCATED A BIT
FARTHER WEST AND HAS ACCELERATED A BIT...REFLECTING A GREATER
INFLUENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES IN THIS SHALLOW SYSTEM.  AN
ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM WAS JUST WEST OF THE CENTER WITH NO OTHER
APPARENT DEEP CONVECTION.  WATER VAPOR AND INFRARED DATA INDICATED
THAT ONE-C IS FEELING THE EFFECTS OF WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS.  

ONE-C REMAINS IN AN AREA WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE AT BEST.  THE GFS AND GFDL INTENSITY GUIDANCE DISSIPATES
THE SYSTEM BY 48 HOURS BUT SHIPS AND SHIFOR MAINTAIN ONE-C AT
DEPRESSION STRENGTH AND EVEN INCREASE ITS INTENSITY TO TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH AFTER 72 HOURS.  HOWEVER...THE FORECAST WILL FAVOR
THE GFS AND GFDL TREND TOWARD DISSIPATION MAINLY DUE TO THE
PROJECTED INCREASE OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  THE FULL TRACK GUIDANCE
PACKAGE VARIES CONSIDERABLY...BUT THE SPREAD OF THE DYNAMIC MODELS
FAVORS A WESTWARD TRACK.  WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY ALONG THE PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL TRACK AND THE DYNAMIC CONSENSUS.  THIS TAKES THE CENTER OF
ONE-C WELL SOUTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ALONG A WESTWARD 
TRACK.  

 
FORECASTER KODAMA
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/2100Z 15.1N 144.6W    25 KT
 12HR VT     05/0600Z 15.2N 146.5W    25 KT
 24HR VT     05/1800Z 15.3N 148.9W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     06/0600Z 15.4N 151.3W    20 KT...DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     06/1800Z 15.4N 153.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
$$