FOPA14 PHFO 290830 PWSCP4 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH PROBABILITIES NUMBER 59 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 0900Z THU SEP 29 2005 ...THIS IS AN EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT FOR 2005... AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KENNETH WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 147.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS... 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR. CHANCES OF EXPERIENCING WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES UNIVERSAL COORDINATED TIME (GREENWICH) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BUOY 50004 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HILO 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 190N 1494W 34 14 5(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) 12 190N 1494W 50 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 12 190N 1494W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24 194N 1515W 34 X 13(13) 3(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) 24 194N 1515W 50 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 24 194N 1515W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 36 198N 1539W 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) 36 198N 1539W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 36 198N 1539W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 48 202N 1562W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 48 202N 1562W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 48 202N 1562W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 72 220N 1630W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 72 220N 1630W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 72 220N 1630W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 30 30 25 20 20 0 0 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) FORECASTER CRAIG $$