FOPA14 PHFO 282030 PWSCP4 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH PROBABILITIES NUMBER 57 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 2100Z WED SEP 28 2005 ...THIS IS AN EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT FOR 2005... AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KENNETH WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 146.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS... 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR. CHANCES OF EXPERIENCING WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES UNIVERSAL COORDINATED TIME (GREENWICH) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HILO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 192N 1473W 34 48 4(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) 12 192N 1473W 50 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 12 192N 1473W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24 200N 1493W 34 2 20(22) 4(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) 24 200N 1493W 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 24 200N 1493W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 36 204N 1515W 34 X 3( 3) 11(14) 2(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) 36 204N 1515W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 36 204N 1515W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 48 210N 1537W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) 48 210N 1537W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 48 210N 1537W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 72 222N 1579W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 72 222N 1579W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 72 222N 1579W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 96 240N 1627W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 96 240N 1627W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 96 240N 1627W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40 35 30 25 20 20 0 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) FORECASTER KODAMA $$