FOPA14 PHFO 281440 PWSCP4 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH PROBABILITIES NUMBER 56 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 1500Z WED SEP 28 2005 ...THIS IS AN EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT FOR 2005... AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KENNETH WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 145.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS... 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR. CHANCES OF EXPERIENCING WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES UNIVERSAL COORDINATED TIME (GREENWICH) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 145W 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BUOY 50004 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HILO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 5(12) X(12) X(12) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 1(11) X(11) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) X(11) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) X(10) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 189N 1469W 34 69 5(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) 12 189N 1469W 50 7 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 12 189N 1469W 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 24 199N 1490W 34 4 30(34) 6(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) 24 199N 1490W 50 X 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 24 199N 1490W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 36 202N 1514W 34 1 3( 4) 14(18) 4(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) 36 202N 1514W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 36 202N 1514W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 48 203N 1537W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 4(16) X(16) X(16) 48 203N 1537W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 48 203N 1537W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 72 207N 1589W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 72 207N 1589W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 72 207N 1589W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 96 230N 1636W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 96 230N 1636W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 96 230N 1636W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 45 40 35 30 25 20 0 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) FORECASTER R BALLARD/HOUSTON $$