FOPA14 PHFO 280237 PWSCP4 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH PROBABILITIES NUMBER 54 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 0300Z WED SEP 28 2005 ...THIS IS AN EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT FOR 2005... AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KENNETH WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 143.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS... 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR. CHANCES OF EXPERIENCING WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES UNIVERSAL COORDINATED TIME (GREENWICH) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 145W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 145W 34 1 6( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BUOY 50004 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 171N 1442W 34 73 5(78) 1(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) 12 171N 1442W 50 8 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 12 171N 1442W 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 24 182N 1457W 34 7 31(38) 5(43) X(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) 24 182N 1457W 50 1 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 24 182N 1457W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 36 189N 1474W 34 1 8( 9) 13(22) 4(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) 36 189N 1474W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 36 189N 1474W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 48 192N 1492W 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 6(13) 4(17) X(17) X(17) 48 192N 1492W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 48 192N 1492W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 72 196N 1532W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) X(11) 72 196N 1532W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 72 196N 1532W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 96 196N 1573W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 96 196N 1573W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 96 196N 1573W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 45 40 35 30 25 20 0 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) FORECASTER MATSUDA $$