FOPA13 PHFO 210836 PWSCP3 HURRICANE JOVA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 38 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 0900Z WED SEP 21 2005 ...THIS IS AN EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT FOR 2005... AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOVA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 146.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/HR. CHANCES OF EXPERIENCING WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES UNIVERSAL COORDINATED TIME (GREENWICH) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 145W 34 5 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 145W 34 12 8(20) 5(25) 2(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) BUOY 50004 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) HILO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 178N 1471W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 12 178N 1471W 50 84 7(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) 12 178N 1471W 64 53 12(65) 2(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) 24 187N 1480W 34 78 16(94) 3(97) X(97) 1(98) X(98) X(98) 24 187N 1480W 50 14 46(60) 8(68) 2(70) 1(71) X(71) X(71) 24 187N 1480W 64 3 29(32) 9(41) 1(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) 36 197N 1489W 34 19 45(64) 18(82) 6(88) 2(90) 1(91) X(91) 36 197N 1489W 50 1 17(18) 25(43) 9(52) 3(55) X(55) X(55) 36 197N 1489W 64 X 5( 5) 16(21) 5(26) 2(28) X(28) X(28) 48 208N 1498W 34 3 18(21) 30(51) 17(68) 12(80) 1(81) X(81) 48 208N 1498W 50 X 2( 2) 15(17) 16(33) 9(42) X(42) X(42) 48 208N 1498W 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 6(19) X(19) X(19) 72 246N 1520W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 37(43) 11(54) X(54) 72 246N 1520W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 5(21) X(21) 72 246N 1520W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) 96 299N 1534W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) 5(27) 96 299N 1534W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) 96 299N 1534W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 120 379N 1541W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 120 379N 1541W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 120 379N 1541W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 95 95 90 90 85 70 60 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) FORECASTER FARRELL $$