FOPA13 PHFO 200250 PWSCP3 HURRICANE JOVA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 33 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 0300Z TUE SEP 20 2005 ...THIS IS AN EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT FOR 2005... AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOVA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 143.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/HR. CHANCES OF EXPERIENCING WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES UNIVERSAL COORDINATED TIME (GREENWICH) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 145W 34 51 7(58) 3(61) 1(62) 1(63) X(63) X(63) 15N 145W 50 5 3( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) 15N 145W 64 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 145W 34 4 13(17) 14(31) 8(39) 7(46) 1(47) 1(48) 20N 145W 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) BUOY 50004 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 166N 1443W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 12 166N 1443W 50 85 5(90) 1(91) X(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92) 12 166N 1443W 64 54 10(64) 2(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) 24 172N 1451W 34 88 7(95) 2(97) X(97) 1(98) X(98) X(98) 24 172N 1451W 50 28 33(61) 6(67) 2(69) 1(70) 1(71) X(71) 24 172N 1451W 64 7 25(32) 6(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) 36 177N 1459W 34 53 26(79) 7(86) 4(90) 2(92) X(92) X(92) 36 177N 1459W 50 3 26(29) 17(46) 6(52) 2(54) X(54) 1(55) 36 177N 1459W 64 1 9(10) 12(22) 5(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) 48 187N 1466W 34 7 29(36) 21(57) 12(69) 6(75) 2(77) X(77) 48 187N 1466W 50 X 5( 5) 12(17) 12(29) 6(35) 1(36) X(36) 48 187N 1466W 64 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) 3(16) X(16) X(16) 72 206N 1479W 34 1 3( 4) 8(12) 15(27) 18(45) 6(51) 1(52) 72 206N 1479W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 10(15) 2(17) X(17) 72 206N 1479W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 96 234N 1494W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 12(23) 3(26) 96 234N 1494W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 96 234N 1494W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 120 265N 1520W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) 120 265N 1520W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 120 265N 1520W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 95 90 85 80 70 65 60 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) FORECASTER MATSUDA $$