FOPA13 PHFO 201435 PWSCP3 HURRICANE JOVA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 35 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 1500Z TUE SEP 20 2005 ...THIS IS AN EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT FOR 2005... AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOVA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 144.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/HR. CHANCES OF EXPERIENCING WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES UNIVERSAL COORDINATED TIME (GREENWICH) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 145W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 145W 50 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 145W 34 10 11(21) 7(28) 5(33) 4(37) X(37) X(37) 20N 145W 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) BUOY 50004 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) 1(11) X(11) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 170N 1457W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 12 170N 1457W 50 84 6(90) 1(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) 12 170N 1457W 64 52 12(64) 1(65) 1(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) 24 176N 1467W 34 80 14(94) 2(96) 1(97) 1(98) X(98) X(98) 24 176N 1467W 50 19 41(60) 6(66) 3(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) 24 176N 1467W 64 3 29(32) 8(40) 1(41) 1(42) X(42) X(42) 36 183N 1475W 34 35 39(74) 10(84) 5(89) 3(92) X(92) X(92) 36 183N 1475W 50 2 23(25) 20(45) 8(53) 3(56) 1(57) X(57) 36 183N 1475W 64 X 8( 8) 13(21) 6(27) 2(29) X(29) X(29) 48 194N 1482W 34 5 26(31) 25(56) 14(70) 10(80) 1(81) X(81) 48 194N 1482W 50 X 3( 3) 14(17) 15(32) 7(39) 1(40) X(40) 48 194N 1482W 64 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 8(14) 5(19) 1(20) X(20) 72 217N 1502W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 13(19) 29(48) 9(57) 2(59) 72 217N 1502W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 15(18) 5(23) X(23) 72 217N 1502W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) 96 244N 1528W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 19(29) 5(34) 96 244N 1528W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) 96 244N 1528W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 120 279N 1562W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) 120 279N 1562W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 120 279N 1562W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 95 95 90 90 85 80 75 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) FORECASTER FARRELL $$