FOPA13 PHFO 190230 PWSCP3 HURRICANE JOVA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 0300Z MON SEP 19 2005 ...THIS IS AN EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT FOR 2005... AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOVA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 141.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/HR. CHANCES OF EXPERIENCING WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES UNIVERSAL COORDINATED TIME (GREENWICH) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 145W 34 10 35(45) 14(59) 5(64) 2(66) 1(67) X(67) 15N 145W 50 1 9(10) 9(19) 4(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25) 15N 145W 64 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 145W 34 1 2( 3) 5( 8) 5(13) 8(21) 3(24) 2(26) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BUOY 50004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 152N 1425W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 12 152N 1425W 50 77 8(85) 1(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) 12 152N 1425W 64 46 13(59) 1(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) 24 158N 1437W 34 63 26(89) 4(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) 24 158N 1437W 50 9 43(52) 7(59) 2(61) 1(62) X(62) X(62) 24 158N 1437W 64 2 25(27) 7(34) X(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) 36 163N 1448W 34 12 44(56) 18(74) 4(78) 2(80) 1(81) X(81) 36 163N 1448W 50 1 15(16) 20(36) 6(42) 1(43) 1(44) X(44) 36 163N 1448W 64 X 6( 6) 11(17) 4(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) 48 169N 1457W 34 3 22(25) 27(52) 11(63) 5(68) 1(69) 1(70) 48 169N 1457W 50 X 3( 3) 13(16) 9(25) 4(29) 1(30) 1(31) 48 169N 1457W 64 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) 72 177N 1466W 34 1 7( 8) 19(27) 16(43) 9(52) 4(56) 1(57) 72 177N 1466W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 7(17) 1(18) 1(19) 72 177N 1466W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 96 193N 1475W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 9(15) 11(26) 6(32) 2(34) 96 193N 1475W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) 96 193N 1475W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 120 216N 1490W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) 3(13) 120 216N 1490W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 120 216N 1490W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 90 85 80 75 65 60 55 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) FORECASTER CRAIG $$