FOPA12 PHFO 041445 PWSCP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 1500Z THU AUG 04 2005 ...THIS IS AN EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT FOR 2005... AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 143.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS... 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR. CHANCES OF EXPERIENCING WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES UNIVERSAL COORDINATED TIME (GREENWICH) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 145W 34 8 7(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BUOY 51002 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 15N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 155N 1445W 34 14 5(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) 12 155N 1445W 50 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 12 155N 1445W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 24 156N 1468W 34 1 14(15) 6(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) 24 156N 1468W 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 24 156N 1468W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 36 156N 1493W 34 X 1( 1) 13(14) 4(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) 36 156N 1493W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 36 156N 1493W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 48 156N 1520W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 4(16) X(16) X(16) 48 156N 1520W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 48 156N 1520W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 72 155N 1574W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) 72 155N 1574W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 72 155N 1574W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 96 149N 1628W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 96 149N 1628W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 96 149N 1628W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 120 142N 1680W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 120 142N 1680W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 120 142N 1680W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 30 30 30 30 25 20 15 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) FORECASTER POWELL $$