Skip Navigation Links
NOAA NWS United States Department of Commerce

Tropical Depression HECTOR issued by JTWC - Archived Graphics based on JTWC bulletins


Text Archive


Legacy Cone
3-day no line
3-day with line
5-day no line
5-day with line
Cone w/ Wind Field
3-day no line
3-day with line
5-day no line
5-day with line
Wind Speed Probabilities
34 kt (39 mph)
50 kt (58 mph)
64 kt (74 mph)
Arrival Time of TS Winds
Most Likely
Most Likely & WSP
Earliest Reasonable
Earliest Reasonable & WSP
Interactive Map
Interactive Map
Wind Field
Initial Wind Field
Wind History
Misc
Satellite
SST
Probability Charts

The tropical cyclones depicted on this map west of 180 (dateline) are based on bulletins issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), based in Honolulu, HI. The Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) for this area is the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA).

* If the storm is forecast to dissipate within 3 days, the "Full/5 day Forecast" and "3 day" graphic will be identical

About this product:

This graphic shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink), tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow). The orange circle indicates the current position of the center of the tropical cyclone. The black line and dots show the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) forecast track of the center at the times indicated. The dot indicating the forecast center location will be black if the cyclone is forecast to be tropical and will be white with a black outline if the cyclone is forecast to be extratropical. If only an L is displayed, then the system is forecast to be a remnant low. The letter inside the dot indicates the CPHC's forecast intensity for that time:

D: Tropical Depression – wind speed less than 39 MPH
S: Tropical Storm – wind speed between 39 MPH and 73 MPH
H: Hurricane – wind speed between 74 MPH and 110 MPH
M: Major Hurricane – wind speed greater than 110 MPH

CPHC tropical cyclone forecast tracks can be in error. This forecast uncertainty is conveyed by the track forecast "cone", the solid white and stippled white areas in the graphic. The solid white area depicts the track forecast uncertainty for days 1-3 of the forecast, while the stippled area depicts the uncertainty on days 4-5. Historical data indicate that the entire 5-day path of the center of the tropical cyclone will remain within the cone about 60-70% of the time. To form the cone, a set of imaginary circles are placed along the forecast track at the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h positions, where the size of each circle is set so that it encloses 67% of the previous five years official forecast errors. The cone is then formed by smoothly connecting the area swept out by the set of circles.

It is also important to realize that a tropical cyclone is not a point. Their effects can span many hundreds of miles from the center. The area experiencing hurricane force (one-minute average wind speeds of at least 74 mph) and tropical storm force (one-minute average wind speeds of 39-73 mph) winds can extend well beyond the white areas shown enclosing the most likely track area of the center. The distribution of hurricane and tropical storm force winds in this tropical cyclone can be seen in the Wind History graphic linked above.

Considering the combined forecast uncertainties in track, intensity, and size, the chances that any particular location will experience winds of 34 kt (tropical storm force), 50 kt, or 64 kt (hurricane force) from this tropical cyclone are presented in tabular form for selected locations and forecast positions. This information is also presented in graphical form for the 34 kt, 50 kt, and 64 kt thresholds.

Note:  A detailed definition of the CPHC track forecast cone is also available.