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Tropical Cyclone Discussion Example
WTPA43 PHFO 200246
TCDCP3

HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  33
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
5 PM HST MON SEP 19 2005
 
HURRICANE JOVA APPEARS TO HAVE REACHED ITS PEAK STRENGTH AT 100 KNOTS
OR 115 MPH AND WAS ESTIMATED TO BE A T5.5 AT 2 PM HST. SINCE THEN 
CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED WITH ITS COLD EYE WALL BEGINNING TO BREAK 
DOWN...ITS STEADY NORTHWESTWARD PATH IS TAKEN INTO SLIGHTLY COOLER
WATER CROSSING THE 80DEGF ISOTHERM AND INTO PARTIALLY SHEARING 
SOUTHWESTERLIES AT UPPER LEVELS. THUS WE WILL MAINTAIN A SLOW 
WEAKENING TREND...AN ABRUPT WEAKENING DOES NOT SEEM WARRANTED BY 
THE MAJORITY OF INTENSITY MODELS. WE WILL CONTINUE THE NORTHWESTWARD 
MOVEMENT THAT HAS BEEN PERSISTENTLY OUTLINED BY NEARLY ALL MODELS...
PARTICULARLY THE CONSENSUS BASED GUNS GUNA AND CONU AND HAVE
SPEEDED UP OUR LATER PERIOD MOTIONS IN DEFERENCE TO THEM.
THIS WOULD PLACE JOVA 300 TO 400 MILES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
BIG ISLAND AT ITS CLOSEST POINT FRIDAY/SATURDAY.  
 
FORECASTER MATSUDA
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/0300Z 16.2N 143.5W   100 KT
 12HR VT     20/1200Z 16.6N 144.3W    95 KT
 24HR VT     21/0000Z 17.2N 145.1W    90 KT
 36HR VT     21/1200Z 17.7N 145.9W    85 KT
 48HR VT     22/0000Z 18.7N 146.6W    80 KT
 72HR VT     23/0000Z 20.6N 147.9W    70 KT
 96HR VT     24/0000Z 23.4N 149.4W    65 KT
120HR VT     25/0000Z 26.5N 152.0W    60 KT
 
 
$$


      
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