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NOAA > NWS > CPHC > FLOSSIE Archive > TROPICAL DEPRESSION FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 31

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WTPA42 PHFO 160900
TCDCP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092007
1100 PM HST WED AUG 15 2007

CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 2.0 FROM HFO AND JTWC...AND 3.1 FROM THE UW/CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT). MANUAL LOCATION OF LOW LEVEL CLOUD CENTER IN LOCALLY RUN ADT GIVES 1.0. THE BURST OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WAS SHEARED OFF BY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT...AND THERE IS NO SIGN OF ANY REGENERATION OF THE CONVECTION. ALL THAT IS LEFT IS A LOW LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN REDUCED TO A GENEROUS 30 KNOTS.

AS STATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE MUCH WEAKENED FLOSSIE IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED TOWARD THE WEST BY THE LOW LEVEL TRADE FLOW...AND WILL NOT REGENERATE DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ALTHOUGH AN OCCASIONAL CONVECTIVE FLAREUP MAY OCCUR IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...IT WILL BE QUICKLY SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD DUE TO AN ADJUSTMENT IN THE 00Z FIX POSITION. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0900Z 17.1N 160.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 16/1800Z 17.1N 162.3W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 17/0600Z 17.3N 164.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 17/1800Z 17.7N 167.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATED
48HR VT 18/0600Z 18.2N 170.2W 20 KT...DISSIPATED
72HR VT 19/0600Z 19.3N 175.7W 20 KT...DISSIPATED
96HR VT 20/0600Z 20.1N 178.9E 10 KT...DISSIPATED
120HR VT 21/0600Z 20.4N 173.5E 10 KT...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWNING

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