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NOAA > NWS > CPHC > FLOSSIE Archive > TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 29

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WTPA42 PHFO 152038
TCDCP2

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092007
1100 AM HST WED AUG 15 2007

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO HAVE A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON FLOSSIE...DESPITE THE RECENT FLARE-UP OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. CURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 3.0 FROM HFO AND JTWC...AND 3.5 FROM SAB. FLOSSIE PASSED DIRECTLY OVER NOAA BUOY 51002 AROUND 1700 UTC...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 37 KT AT 1500 UTC. THE INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 40 KT...PRIMARILY BASED ON THE BUOY OBSERVATIONS...WHICH ARE IN LINE WITH THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES.

FLOSSIE IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED WESTWARD BY THE LOW LEVEL TRADE FLOW...AS IT WILL NOT BE ABLE TO ORGANIZE IN THE VERTICAL DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE TRACK FORECAST THROUGH 72 HOURS HAS BEEN NUDGED SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND INDICATES A SLOWER FORWARD MOTION...BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. THE TRACK FORECAST LIES ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF A TIGHTLY BUNCHED MODEL ENVELOPE THROUGH 48 HOURS.

DESPITE MOVING TOWARD AN AREA OF HIGHER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT...INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL PREVENT FLOSSIE FROM INTENSIFYING. A SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST IN TANDEM WITH FLOSSIE...LEADING SHIPS TO DISSIPATE FLOSSIE IN 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DEPICTS A WEAKENING TREND...WHICH FOLLOWS HWF GUIDANCE CLOSELY THROUGH 24 HOURS...AND IS A BLEND OF THE INTENSITY MODELS THEREAFTER. THIS FORECAST KEEPS FLOSSIE ON A WESTWARD TRACK UNTIL DISSIPATION.

THE 403RD WING OF THE AIR FORCE RESERVE 53RD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE SQUADRON IS NO LONGER FLYING MISSIONS INTO FLOSSIE AND IS RETURNING TO THE MAINLAND. MANY THANKS FROM CPHC FOR THEIR TIMELY AND CRITICAL DATA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/2100Z 17.3N 158.5W 40 KT
12HR VT 16/0600Z 17.4N 160.0W 40 KT
24HR VT 16/1800Z 17.8N 162.5W 35 KT
36HR VT 17/0600Z 18.4N 165.2W 30 KT
48HR VT 17/1800Z 18.9N 167.8W 30 KT
72HR VT 18/1800Z 19.9N 173.1W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 19/1800Z 20.3N 178.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 20/1800Z 20.6N 177.0E 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BIRCHARD/CRAIG

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