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NOAA > NWS > CPHC > FLOSSIE Archive > TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 28

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WTPA42 PHFO 151445
TCDCP2

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092007
500 AM HST WED AUG 15 2007

STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR CONTINUES TO WEAKEN TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE.

FLOSSIE HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE HIGH CLOUDS SHIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND WARMING. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER CONTINUES TO EMERGE ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. AT 1150 UTC...NOAA BUOY 51002...ONLY ABOUT 30 MILES WEST OF THE CENTER OF FLOSSIE...WAS REPORTING NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS AT 23 KT AND A PRESSURE OF 1011.9 MB. FLOSSIE MUST HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY SINCE YESTERDAY TO BE HAVING SO LITTLE IMPACT AT THE BUOY. DVORAK ESTIMATES AT 1130 UTC WERE 3.0 AND 3.5. WE WILL GO WITH THE WEAKER ESTIMATE...45 KT...TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE BUOY DATA AND THE STRONG SHEARING. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS STRONG SHEAR CONTINUING OVER FLOSSIE AS IT TRACKS WEST SO IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THE SYSTEM CAN RE-INTENSIFY. WE ARE FORECASTING FLOSSIE TO WEAKEN STEADILY TO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 96 HOURS.

WE HAD EXPECTED FLOSSIE TO MOVE FASTER AND ALONG A MORE WESTWARD TRACK AS IT WEAKENED AND IT HAS DONE SO. ON THIS PACKAGE WE FORECAST THE WESTWARD TRACK TO CONTINUE TILL FLOSSIE DISSIPATES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/1500Z 17.4N 157.9W 45 KT
12HR VT 16/0000Z 17.5N 159.9W 45 KT
24HR VT 16/1200Z 17.9N 162.4W 40 KT
36HR VT 17/0000Z 18.5N 165.0W 30 KT
48HR VT 17/1200Z 19.1N 167.5W 30 KT
72HR VT 18/1200Z 19.9N 172.4W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 19/1200Z 20.4N 177.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 20/1200Z 20.6N 177.7E 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON

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