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NOAA > NWS > CPHC > FLOSSIE Archive > HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 26

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WTPA42 PHFO 150254
TCDCP2

HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092007
500 PM HST TUE AUG 14 2007

AFTER BEING CLOUD-COVERED...THE EYE OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE BRIEFLY CLEARED IN VISIBLE AND WARMED IN INFRARED IMAGERY EARLIER TODAY. HOWEVER...RADAR AND VISIBLE IMAGERY NOW SHOWS RECURRING WEAKNESS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EYEWALL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RADAR SHOWING AN ABSENCE OF DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AT 0200 UTC. SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THESE GAPS OCCASIONALLY REFORM. IN SHORT...HURRICANE FLOSSIE IS NOW HAVING DIFFICULTY RETAINING AN INTACT EYEWALL. THE 26 KT VERTICAL SHEAR NOTED OVER FLOSSIE BY UW-CIMMS THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO TAKE ITS TOLL ON THIS SYSTEM. CI VALUES AT 0000 UTC RANGE FROM 4.5 FROM CPHC AND SAB TO 5.0 FROM JTWC...65 TO 77 KT. LATEST AVAILABLE AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS SHOWED 90 KT ONLY WITHIN THE NORTHEAST EYEWALL. WE WILL CONTINUE THE OVERALL WEAKENING TREND BY INITIALIZING FLOSSIE AT 85 KT FOR THIS RUN.

WE WILL WEAKEN FLOSSIE FOLLOWING THE TREND SUGGESTED BY SHFR 5-DAY MODEL GUIDANCE...LEAVING THIS SYSTEM AT 20 KT AT 120 HOURS. FLOSSIE MAY WEAKEN FASTER IF SHEAR INCREASES AND THE EYEWALL TOTALLY COLLAPSES. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT STRONG GRADIENT FLOW EXISTS FAR NORTH OF FLOSSIE...RESULTING IN TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 35 KT AT SOUTH POINT ON THE BIG ISLAND SHORTLY BEFORE 0300 UTC. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY TIGHTER FOR THIS PACKAGE...WITH BAMD AND HWFI REPRESENTING THE RIGHT AND LEFT OUTLIERS...RESPECTIVELY. THE FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY RESEMBLES THE OLD ONE...FOLLOWING CONSENSUS GUIDANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS. BOTH CONB AND CCON TAKE SHARP DEPARTURES TO THE RIGHT BEYOND 48 HOURS...WHILE THE FORECAST TRACK CONTINUES TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST AS FLOSSIE RESPONDS TO LOWER STEERING WITH FURTHER WEAKENING. INITIAL TRACK MOTION IS 295 AT 7 KT BASED ON RADAR. HURRICANE FLOSSIE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND WEAKEN BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0300Z 17.5N 155.5W 85 KT
12HR VT 15/1200Z 18.0N 156.7W 80 KT
24HR VT 16/0000Z 18.7N 158.2W 75 KT
36HR VT 16/1200Z 19.7N 160.3W 65 KT
48HR VT 17/0000Z 20.5N 162.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 18/0000Z 21.9N 167.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 19/0000Z 23.4N 171.7W 30 KT
120HR VT 20/0000Z 24.4N 176.2W 20 KT

$$

FORECASTER POWELL

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