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NOAA > NWS > CPHC > FLOSSIE Archive > HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 24

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WTPA42 PHFO 141505
TCDCP2

HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092007
500 AM HST TUE AUG 14 2007

AFTER A CLEAR WEAKENING TREND LAST EVENING...FLOSSIE HAS MAINTAINED ITS INTENSITY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. NO EYE HAS BEEN VISIBLE ON SATELLITE DATA FOR SEVERAL HOURS...BUT NEXRAD AND RECON DATA STILL SHOW A PARTIAL EYEWALL OPEN TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES GAVE A CI NUMBER OF 5.0. AND A 1430 UTC RECON FIX REPORTED MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS OF 98 KT. THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE STILL FORECAST TO EXTEND OUT FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTH TO AFFECT THE BIG ISLAND AS FLOSSIE PASSES SOUTH OF THE ISLAND TODAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUE FOR THE BIG ISLAND. WE STILL EXPECT THAT NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL BE REQUIRED FOR THE ISLANDS EXCEPT THE BIG ISLAND. A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK COULD CHANGE THIS EXPECTATION...BUT WITH GOOD RADAR IMAGERY WE ARE QUITE CONFIDENT ABOUT THE TRACK FORECAST.

TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND SHOWS A CONTINUED WEST NORTHWEST TRACK. WE HAVE KEPT THE TRACK NEARLY THE SAME EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED. RADAR FIXES SHOW A SLOWER FORWARD MOTION NOW AND MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGEST THE FORWARD MOTION WILL CONTINUE SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STEADY WEAKENING AND WE HAVE MAINTAINED THAT TREND.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/1500Z 16.9N 154.1W 95 KT
12HR VT 15/0000Z 17.6N 155.7W 85 KT
24HR VT 15/1200Z 18.4N 157.9W 75 KT
36HR VT 16/0000Z 19.2N 160.2W 65 KT
48HR VT 16/1200Z 20.0N 162.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 17/1200Z 21.4N 166.7W 40 KT
96HR VT 18/1200Z 22.5N 170.6W 35 KT
120HR VT 19/1200Z 23.6N 174.3W 25 KT

$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON

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