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NOAA > NWS > CPHC > FLOSSIE Archive > HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 21

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WTPA42 PHFO 132045
TCDCP2

HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092007
1100 AM HST MON AUG 13 2007

HURRICANE FLOSSIE REMAINS A DANGEROUS HURRICANE WITH A CLEAR WELL-DEFINED EYE AND GOOD OUTFLOW...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND AIRCRAFT RECON EXTRAPOLATED A SURFACE WIND SPEED OF 103 KT AT 1830Z. THIS CONTRASTS WITH A CI OF 6.0 OR 115 KT FROM JTWC AND SAB AT 1733Z AND 1800Z...RESPECTIVELY. TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE...WE WILL INITIALIZE FLOSSIE AT 110 KT FOR THIS RUN...MAKING FLOSSIE A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE. THIS DROP IN INTENSITY MAY BE BRIEF SINCE SATELLITE LOOPS HINT AT A CYCLE OF EYEWALL CONVECTIVE INTENSITY.

CONSENSUS TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY PACKED AND VERY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE OFFERED SIX HOURS AGO...BUT GFDL HAS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT. BAMD AND NOGAPS ARE THE RIGHT AND LEFT OUTLIERS...RESPECTIVELY. OUR FORECAST TRACK REMAINS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE DESCRIBED BY CONSENSUS GUIDANCE...WITH A SLIGHT SPEED UP OF A KNOT OR TWO THROUGH 96 HOURS. AN INITIAL MOTION OF 295 DEGREES MEANS FLOSSIE WILL TAKE A PATH VERY SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS PATH THROUGH 24 HOURS...WITH THE PATHS MATCHING UP AFTERWARDS. INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 110 KT THROUGH 24 HOURS BASED MAINLY ON PERSISTENCE...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE EXPECTED AFTERWARDS AS SHEAR AND COOLER WATER FINALLY TAKE THEIR TOLL. IT MUST BE NOTED THAT FLOSSIE HAS BEEN SURPRISINGLY RESILIENT TO COOLER OCEAN TEMPERATURES SO FAR. AT ANY RATE...WE FORECAST FLOSSIE TO REMAIN AT HURRICANE STRENGTH THROUGH THE ENTIRE 120 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.

WE HAVE INCREASED THE 34 KT WIND RADIUS TO 120 NAUTICAL MILES THROUGH THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST QUADRANTS THROUGH 24 HOURS...BASED ON SCATTEROMETER AND AIRCRAFT DATA. THIS WILL PLACE THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII WITHIN THE RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY TUESDAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS THEREFORE IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE ISLANDS FROM MAUI COUNTY TO KAUAI COUNTY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REQUIRE ANY TYPES OF WATCHES. HOWEVER...ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION OF THE TRACK TOWARD THE NORTH MIGHT RESULT IN WATCHES OR WARNINGS FOR ADDITIONAL AREAS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/2100Z 15.3N 150.6W 110 KT
12HR VT 14/0600Z 16.1N 152.4W 110 KT
24HR VT 14/1800Z 17.0N 154.7W 110 KT
36HR VT 15/0600Z 17.9N 156.8W 105 KT
48HR VT 15/1800Z 18.6N 158.9W 100 KT
72HR VT 16/1800Z 20.1N 163.0W 90 KT
96HR VT 17/1800Z 21.3N 167.0W 70 KT
120HR VT 18/1800Z 22.4N 171.3W 65 KT

$$
FORECASTER POWELL

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