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NOAA > NWS > CPHC > FLOSSIE Archive > HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20

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WTPA42 PHFO 131530
TCDCP2

HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092007
500 AM HST MON AUG 13 2007

HURRICANE FLOSSIE IS NOT WILLING TO GIVE UP. DESPITE HINTS THAT THE HURRICANE MIGHT MOVE OVER COOLER OCEAN WATER TEMPERATURES...AND THAT IT WOULD EVENTUALLY ENCOUNTER HOSTILE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...IT CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY. THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM JTWC AND SAB WERE 6.0...WHILE HFO REPORTED 5.5. THE ADT AT 1200 UTC IS 6.2...WHICH SUGGESTS A MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OF 120 KT.

THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ACCELERATED THROUGH 36 HOURS. THE FORECAST INTENSITY HAS ALSO BEEN INCREASED BASED ON THE GFDL INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND PERSISTENCE. BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST...INTENSITY AND RADII...THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE REACHING THE BIG ISLAND BY EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY. THEREFORE A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII. WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE BIG ISLAND LATER TODAY. THIS MAY TAKE THE FORM OF A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IF THE PRESENT TRACK FORECAST APPEARS TO BE VERIFYING. AT THE MOMENT...THE ISLANDS FROM MAUI COUNTY TO KAUAI COUNTY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REQUIRE ANY TYPES OF WATCHES. HOWEVER...ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION OF THE TRACK TOWARD THE NORTH MIGHT RESULT IN WATCHES...OR WARNINGS...FOR ADDITIONAL AREAS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/1500Z 14.9N 149.5W 120 KT
12HR VT 14/0000Z 15.6N 151.4W 115 KT
24HR VT 14/1200Z 16.6N 153.8W 110 KT
36HR VT 15/0000Z 17.5N 155.8W 105 KT
48HR VT 15/1200Z 18.3N 157.8W 100 KT
72HR VT 16/1200Z 19.7N 161.5W 90 KT
96HR VT 17/1200Z 20.9N 165.2W 70 KT
120HR VT 18/1200Z 22.2N 170.0W 65 KT

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON

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