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NOAA > NWS > CPHC > FLOSSIE Archive > HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19

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WTPA42 PHFO 130917
TCDCP2

HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092007
1100 PM HST SUN AUG 12 2007

CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FOR FLOSSIE ARE 6.0 FROM SAB AND JTWC...AND 5.5 FROM HFO. THE 0600 UTC ADT ESTIMATE IS 5.9. THEREFORE...THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS FOR THIS HURRICANE WILL BE MAINTAINED AT 115 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS RATHER IMPRESSIVE...AND THE APPROXIMATELY 20 NM DIAMETER EYE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A WELL DEFINED EYEWALL.

THE LATEST MOVEMENT OF FLOSSIE IS TOWARD 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT. ALL OF THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE CLOSELY CLUSTERED THROUGH 36 HOURS. BY 48 HOURS...THERE IS A WIDER SPREAD IN THE TRACK FORECASTS. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 96 HOURS. THE 120 HOUR POSITION WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS DEPENDENT ON THE IMPACT OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT FLOSSIE IS EXPECTED TO FEEL WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. RECENT RUNS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS SHEAR MAY BE LESS THAN WAS EXPECTED IN THE RUNS MADE 24 HOURS AGO. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR FLOSSIE REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

THE CURRENT TRACK...INTENSITY AND WIND RADII FORECAST MAY REQUIRE WATCHES FOR PORTIONS OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS MONDAY MORNING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/0900Z 14.4N 148.2W 115 KT
12HR VT 13/1800Z 15.1N 149.9W 110 KT
24HR VT 14/0600Z 16.0N 152.1W 105 KT
36HR VT 14/1800Z 16.8N 154.2W 100 KT
48HR VT 15/0600Z 17.6N 156.1W 90 KT
72HR VT 16/0600Z 19.1N 159.8W 75 KT
96HR VT 17/0600Z 20.5N 163.7W 60 KT
120HR VT 18/0600Z 21.8N 168.4W 55 KT

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON

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