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NOAA > NWS > CPHC > FLOSSIE Archive > HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18

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WTPA42 PHFO 130251
TCDCP2

HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092007
500 PM HST SUN AUG 12 2007

FLOSSIE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN AN IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE SIGNATURE THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH EYE WALL CONVECTION IS NOT AS WIDE AS IT WAS AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY. CURRENT SATELLITE DVORAK INTENSITIES RANGE FROM 6.0 TO 6.5...AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 121 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS CONGRUENT DATA IN MIND...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 115 KT. AIRCRAFT DATA ALSO CONFIRMED THAT FLOSSIE IS A TIGHTLY-WOUND SYSTEM...WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OBSERVED IN A RADIUS SIMILAR TO THOSE CONTAINED IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES.

FORECAST REASONING HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... SO THE NEW FORECAST TRACK OFFERS FEW CHANGES. FLOSSIE IS TRACKING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID AND UPPER RIDGE TO ITS NORTH...AND THIS SYNOPTIC SCENARIO IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH THROUGH TOMORROW...EXPOSING THE SYSTEM TO MODERATE SHEAR FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. AFTERWARD...FLOSSIE WILL BE ENTERING AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY SHEAR...DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH...AND THE EFFECTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR FROM THE ASSOCIATED SOUTHERLY WINDS...WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN DETERMINING THE FUTURE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF FLOSSIE. LATEST OBJECTIVE AIDS ARE FAIRLY TIGHTLY PACKED...WITH THE NOGAPS AND CONSENSUS MODELS SHIFTING SOUTHWARD FROM EARLIER RUNS. THE TRACK FORECAST LIES ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE...IN DEFERENCE TO THE CYCLONE/S POSITION IN RELATION TO THE ISLANDS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER AREAS OF LOWER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT...AND INCREASED SOUTHERLY SHEAR. INITIALLY THE WEAKENING TREND WILL BE GRADUAL DUE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY SHEAR...WITH INCREASING SHEAR VALUES LATER IN THE PERIOD LEADING TO A MORE ROBUST WEAKENING TREND. THE FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS WELL AS THE GFDL AND HWRF GUIDANCE...AND KEEPS FLOSSIE AT HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII LATE TUESDAY.

THE CURRENT TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST MAY REQUIRE WATCHES FOR PORTIONS OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS EARLY ON MONDAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/0300Z 14.0N 147.0W 115 KT
12HR VT 13/1200Z 14.6N 148.8W 110 KT
24HR VT 14/0000Z 15.6N 151.0W 105 KT
36HR VT 14/1200Z 16.5N 153.3W 100 KT
48HR VT 15/0000Z 17.2N 155.2W 90 KT
72HR VT 16/0000Z 18.7N 158.9W 70 KT
96HR VT 17/0000Z 20.3N 162.6W 55 KT
120HR VT 18/0000Z 21.1N 167.0W 50 KT

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD/KODAMA

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