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NOAA > NWS > CPHC > FLOSSIE Archive > HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17

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HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092007
1100 AM HST SUN AUG 12 2007

SATELLITE IMAGES OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS INDICATE A WEAKENING OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE IN TERMS OF WARMER CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND A RESTRICTED UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 1622 UTC MICROWAVE PASS ALSO SHOWED A BREAK IN THE EYEWALL TO THE EAST. THE DVORAK T-NUMBER ESTIMATES FROM PHFO AND SAB HAVE COME DOWN TO 102 KT BUT THE CURRENT INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN KEPT UP AT 127 KT AND 115 KT RESPECTIVELY. THE ADT INTENSITY ESTIMATE INDICATES 115 KT. GIVEN THE WEAKER PRESENTATION IN THE LATEST IMAGES THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE LOWERED A NOTCH TO 115 KT.

FLOSSIE IS MOVING IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION AT 12 KT TO THE SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL DEVELOP AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH AND THE EFFECTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR FROM THE ASSOCIATED SOUTHERLY WINDS PLAY A KEY ROLE IN DETERMINING THE FUTURE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF FLOSSIE. THE LATEST OBJECTIVE AIDS ARE LESS TIGHTLY PACKED THAN 6 HOURS AGO WITH THE HWRF SHIFTING CONSIDERABLY AND BECOMING ONE OF THE NORTHERN OUTLIERS. NOGAPS IS ALSO A NORTHERN OUTLIER WHILE THE GFS AND UKMET SOLUTIONS ARE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE DUE TO A SMALL SPEED INCREASE IN THE GUIDANCE BUT THE ALIGNMENT REMAINS UNCHANGED AND IS NORTH OF THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS TRACKS.

IT APPEARS VERTICAL SHEAR IS STARTING TO AFFECT FLOSSIE AS INDICATED BY RESTRICTED OUTFLOW IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A CIMSS ANALYSIS SHOWING 10 TO 15 KT OF SHEAR FROM THE SOUTHEAST. SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK UNTIL FLOSSIE PASSES SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND. THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS ROUGHLY IN LINE WITH THE GFDL BUT HIGHER THAN HWRF AND SHIPS. THIS KEEPS FLOSSIE AT HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII ON TUESDAY.

THE CURRENT TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST MAY REQUIRE WATCHES FOR PORTIONS OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS EARLY ON MONDAY.

AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE IS ENROUTE AND IS SCHEDULED TO MAKE ITS FIRST PASS THROUGH THE SYSTEM AT AROUND 13/0000 UTC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/2100Z 13.9N 145.8W 115 KT
12HR VT 13/0600Z 14.4N 147.5W 110 KT
24HR VT 13/1800Z 15.3N 149.8W 100 KT
36HR VT 14/0600Z 16.2N 151.8W 95 KT
48HR VT 14/1800Z 17.0N 154.0W 90 KT
72HR VT 15/1800Z 18.5N 157.8W 70 KT
96HR VT 16/1800Z 20.0N 161.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 17/1800Z 21.3N 165.7W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA/BIRCHARD

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