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NOAA > NWS > CPHC > FLOSSIE Archive > HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16

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WTPA42 PHFO 121517
TCDCP2

HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092007
500 AM HST SUN AUG 12 2007

DANGEROUS HURRICANE FLOSSIE CONTINUES TO TRAVEL ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN. THE SYSTEM HAS TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF ITS VERY FAVORABLE TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT FAR FROM ANY SIGNIFICANT LAND MASSES. THE CURRENT MOTION IS 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT. AS WAS NOTED 6 HOURS EARLIER...SHORT-TERM WOBBLES OF THE EYE ARE CLEARLY EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE AVERAGE TRACK OF FLOSSIE REMAINS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS.

IN ADDITION TO THE WELL-DEFINED EYE AND EYEWALL STRUCTURE OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS MAINTAINED AN EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW OVERNIGHT. DURING A RECENT COORDINATION CALL WITH THE TYPHOON DUTY OFFICER AT JTWC...IT WAS POINTED OUT THAT AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH HAS BEEN DIGGING SOUTHWARD ALONG LONGITUDE 137W. THIS TROUGH AXIS...WHICH IS NORTH NORTHEAST OF FLOSSIE APPEARS TO BE PROVIDING AN EXCELLENT OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE POSITIVE INFLUENCE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALONG WITH THE WARM TROPICAL OCEAN APPEAR TO BE MAINTAINING FLOSSIE/S INTENSITY. THE UW/CIMMS ADT ESTIMATE FOR 1130 UTC WAS 6.0. THE MOST RECENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 6.0 FROM JTWC AND 6.5 FROM SAB AND HFO SUGGESTED THAT FLOSSIE HAS MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS OF 120 KT.

THE LATEST MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE MORE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED IN THE 72 TO 120 HOUR FORECAST TIME FRAME THAN THE RUNS MADE 12 HOURS AGO. NOGAPS CONTINUES TO BE THE MAJOR MODEL BRINGING FLOSSIE ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...WITH THE GFDL RUN BRINGING THE SYSTEM CLOSE TO SOUTH POINT ON THE BIG ISLAND AFTER 72 HOURS. THEREFORE...THE CONSENSUS MODELS WERE FOLLOWED CLOSELY IN THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK.

ONCE AGAIN...THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS THE BIGGEST QUESTION AT THE MOMENT. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALONG THE FUTURE PATH OF FLOSSIE. THIS SHEAR APPEARS TO BE THE MOST HOSTILE BEYOND THE 48 HOUR TIME FRAME. SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DECREASED OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK ALSO IMPLY FUTURE WEAKENING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS IN LINE WITH THE GFDL GUIDANCE. KEEP IN MIND THAT OUR ERRORS IN FORECASTING INTENSITY ARE STILL LARGE...ESPECIALLY AT 48 AND 72 HOURS...AND BEYOND.

THE CURRENT TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST MAY REQUIRE WATCHES FOR PORTIONS OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ON MONDAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/1500Z 13.7N 144.6W 120 KT
12HR VT 13/0000Z 14.1N 146.3W 110 KT
24HR VT 13/1200Z 15.0N 148.5W 105 KT
36HR VT 14/0000Z 15.8N 150.6W 100 KT
48HR VT 14/1200Z 16.6N 152.7W 95 KT
72HR VT 15/1200Z 18.0N 156.1W 75 KT
96HR VT 16/1200Z 19.3N 159.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 17/1200Z 20.8N 163.9W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON

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