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NOAA > NWS > CPHC > FLOSSIE Archive > HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14

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WTPA42 PHFO 120246
TCDCP2

HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092007
500 PM HST SAT AUG 11 2007

A BURST OF EYEWALL CONVECTION AND SIGNIFICANT WARMING IN THE EYE ITSELF AS DETECTED IN INFRARED DATA PUSHED SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES TO 127 KT FROM BOTH PHFO AND SAB. THE OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATE CAME IN AT 120 KT. SINCE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED SOMEWHAT SINCE THE FIX...WILL FAVOR THE MORE CONSERVATIVE VALUE OF 120 KT AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY OR CATEGORY 4 ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.

FLOSSIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST AT 11 KT TO THE SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. OBJECTIVE AIDS CONTINUE THIS TREND THOUGH THE DIFFERENCES...AND THE UNCERTAINTY...BECOME SIGNIFICANT BEYOND DAY 1. THE GFDL...BAM-DEEP AND NOGAPS CONTINUE TO BE THE NORTHERN OUTLIERS WHILE THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE ARE THE SOUTHERN OUTLIERS. OF INTEREST IS THE LARGE SHIFT OF THE HWRF WHICH NOW LIES IN THE SOUTHERN CLUSTER ALONG WITH THE GFS...ECMWF AND JAPANESE SPECTRAL MODELS. THE DECIDING FACTOR CONTINUES TO DEPEND ON THE EVENTUAL STRENGTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE EFFECTS OF INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ON THE INTENSITY. IF THE SHEAR AND COOLER WATER SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN FLOSSIE...THE TRACK WILL FOLLOW THE SOUTHERN GROUP WITH A WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION MORE IN LINE WITH THE LOWER LEVEL WINDS. IF FLOSSIE IS ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY...THE TRACK WILL BE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND CLOSE TO THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND ROUGHLY DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE.

AS FOR INTENSITY...FLOSSIE MAY HAVE REACHED ITS PEAK WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BENEATH THE FORECAST TRACK STEADILY DECREASING. VERTICAL SHEAR IS ALSO EXPECTED IN INCREASE CONSIDERABLY BEYOND DAY 2 NEAR 150W. THESE FACTORS SHOULD COMBINE TO WEAKEN FLOSSIE STEADILY WITH ITS INTENSITY FORECAST TO DROP BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH AFTER DAY 3. THIS TREND IS IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS THE CENTER OF FLOSSIE SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...A CLOSER APPROACH CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/0300Z 13.4N 142.2W 120 KT
12HR VT 12/1200Z 13.8N 143.9W 115 KT
24HR VT 13/0000Z 14.4N 146.1W 105 KT
36HR VT 13/1200Z 15.2N 148.3W 95 KT
48HR VT 14/0000Z 15.9N 150.5W 85 KT
72HR VT 15/0000Z 17.4N 154.6W 65 KT
96HR VT 16/0000Z 18.6N 158.2W 50 KT
120HR VT 17/0000Z 20.2N 161.6W 40 KT

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA

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