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NOAA > NWS > CPHC > COSME Archive > TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 28

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WTPA41 PHFO 210852
TCDCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062007
1100 PM HST FRI JUL 20 2007

TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME PASSED ABOUT 160 NM SOUTH OF SOUTH POINT ON THE BIG ISLAND EARLIER THIS EVENING...BRINGING HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KTS AT SEVERAL SPOTS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 1.5 FROM PHFO AND 2.0 FROM SAB SUGGEST MAINTAINING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOW WELL WEST OF A SMALL AREA OF REMNANT CONVECTION...AS NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPACT COSME.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/17 KT. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE SHALLOW CIRCULATION IS STEERED BY LOW LEVEL TRADE FLOW. IN THE LONGER TERM...WHATEVER IS LEFT OF COSME WILL LIKELY BEGIN A SLOW TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AS IT APPROACHES THE DATE LINE AND ROUNDS THE WEST SIDE OF THE LARGE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTH.

IT MAY SOON BE TIME TO BID ADIOS TO COSME...AS THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY SUFFERING FROM 15 TO 20 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACCORDING TO GOES SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. THE INCREASED SHEAR IS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THIS TROUGH IS MOVING IN TANDEM WITH COSME...AND IS EXPECTED TO KEEP SIGNIFICANT SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE LATEST CIRA/RAMMB OCEAN HEAT CONTENT GRAPHIC SHOWS THE SYSTEM ENTERING AN AREA FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION BY AROUND 00Z ON THE 24TH...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A STRENGTHENING TUTT AROUND 177W...WITH STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR RESULTING. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW APPEARS UNFAVORABLE FOR REINTENSIFICATION OF COSME...SO THE FORECAST REFLECTS ONLY A REMNANT LOW AFTER 24 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/0900Z 16.3N 156.6W 30 KT
12HR VT 21/1800Z 16.3N 159.5W 25 KT
24HR VT 22/0600Z 16.3N 163.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING
36HR VT 22/1800Z 16.6N 166.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 23/0600Z 16.9N 170.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 24/0600Z 17.9N 177.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 25/0600Z 19.7N 177.3E 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 26/0600Z 21.4N 172.5E 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BROWNING

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